Nailor
WR · LV vs KC
Proj pts
6.6pts
market
Williams
WR · WAS vs IND
Proj pts
6.2pts
market
Antonio Williams or Jalen Nailor: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Jalen Nailor over Antonio Williams by 0.4. Jalen Nailor leads at 6.6. Antonio Williams is the first one out, 0.4 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share12% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs WR
- Big-play upside33% boom weeks
Cons
- Low target share12% target share
- Thin volume3.7 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is consistency: Nailor 5%, Williams 33%.
Latest game on the card: Nailor 2.6 (PPR points).
Why Jalen Nailor
Start Jalen Nailor — projects 6.6, an even matchup vs KC.
Jalen Nailor projects 6.6 points on a 1.6–7.6 range. The matchup grades as neutral against KC. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: start Jalen Nailor this week.
Working against Nailor: Low target share (12% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Nailor leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.6 vs 6.2); Bust rate (29% vs 33%); Snap share (65% vs 42%); Red zone targets (13 vs 2).
Why Antonio Williams
Sit Antonio Williams — projects 6.2, a favorable matchup vs IND.
Antonio Williams projects 6.2 points. The matchup grades as favorable against IND. Usage: targets / game at 3.7. Net: bench Antonio Williams this week.
Working for Williams: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs WR), Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).
Working against Williams: Low target share (12% target share), Thin volume (3.7 targets/g).
Where Williams leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs C-); Implied team total (22.5 vs 21.5); Last 3 avg (8.4 vs 3.4); Last 5 avg (8.4 vs 3.6); vs season (+0.0 vs -1.6); Consistency (33% vs 5%); Boom rate (33% vs 12%); Targets / game (3.7 vs 3.1).
Recent form
Jalen Nailor's last 5 games: PPR points 0, 7.9, 5.7, 1.9, 2.6 (oldest to newest).
Antonio Williams's last 3 games: PPR points 3.5, 5.4, 16.4 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Nailor has already beaten Williams's 6.2 projection in 1 of his 5; Williams has beaten Nailor's 6.6 in 1 of his 3.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Jalen Nailor (LV) faces KC, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +4.5.
Antonio Williams (WAS) faces IND, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 22.5, spread +3.5.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)