New
Week8 · 2026
Starting1
Scoring
New comparison
Toss-up

Ekeler

RB · WAS vs PHI

Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ET

Projected points6.5ptsUsage estimate

First out

Dobbins

RB · DEN vs KC

Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET

Projected points6.4pts

Toss-up

Bench

Austin Ekeler or J.K. Dobbins: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Toss-up. Austin Ekeler gets the nod over J.K. Dobbins.

Ahead by
+0.1pts
over Dobbins
Confidence
Lower
The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate

Ekeler's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.

Case for Dobbins

The case for Dobbins is more of the snaps (41% to 16%).

Flips if

Start J.K. Dobbins instead if you want more of the snaps (41% to 16%).

Risk

The risk: Ekeler has been held under 8 points in 3 straight games.

Highlights

Injuries as of Fri 2:00 PM ET
EkelerToss-upRB · WAS vs PHIUsually 6.2+0.3pts this week

Helps him

  1. +4.1ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.
  2. −6.0spreadEdgeHis team is expected to lead, which tends to mean more carries late.

Hurts him

  1. −2.3ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
  2. −1.2ptsrecent workHis work has dropped off in his last few games.
  3. 9%touchesHe handles only 9% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
  4. 2nd toughestper carryEdgePHI allows plenty of RB chances because teams run on them a lot; per carry or target they’re tough (0.72 pts, 2nd toughest).
DobbinsFirst outRB · DEN vs KCUsually 8.3−1.9pts this week

Helps him

  1. 1.1inside the 5He averages 1.1 carries a game inside the 5, so touchdowns stay in reach.
  2. +4.1last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 4.1 points above his season average.
  3. 3games in a rowHe has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games.

Hurts him

  1. −1.9ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 22.5 rushing yards, below his usual 41.9.
  2. −0.5ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.35 touchdowns, below his usual 0.43.
  3. KCvs RBsEdgeKC is the 9th toughest defense for running backs.
  4. 41%snapsHe plays only 41% of snaps, so his work comes in rotation.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Stat
Scoring
ProjectionEkeler: 6.5 (best)Dobbins: 6.4
TD pointsof the projectionEkeler: Our estimateDobbins: 2.1
Expected TDsthis weekEkeler: Our estimateDobbins: 0.35
Projected team pointsEkeler: 23.0 (best)Dobbins: 19.8
Goal line carriesper gameEkeler: 0.0Dobbins: 1.1 (best)
Red zone carriesper gameEkeler: 0.7Dobbins: 1.9 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameEkeler: 0.3 (best)Dobbins: 0.0
Role
Snap shareEkeler: 16%Dobbins: 41% (best)
Usage worthptsEkeler: 4.0Dobbins: 10.3 (best)
Touch shareEkeler: 9%Dobbins: 31% (best)
Target shareEkeler: 5%Dobbins: 5%
Touches / gameEkeler: 4.0Dobbins: 13.6 (best)
Targets / gameEkeler: 1.7 (best)Dobbins: 1.3
Vacated touches this weekEkeler: 14.8 (best)Dobbins: 2.6
High value touches / gameEkeler: 1.3Dobbins: 2.6 (best)
Goal line carry shareEkeler: 0%Dobbins: 62% (best)
Red zone touches / gameEkeler: 1.0Dobbins: 1.9 (best)
Rush success rateEkeler: 38% (best)Dobbins: 30%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Ekeler: 0%Dobbins: 0%
Usage worth vs scoredEkeler: Earned by usage 4.0Scored 3.4Dobbins: Earned by usage 10.3Scored 8.3
Rush yards / gameEkeler: 10.3Dobbins: 41.9 (best)
Points from rushingEkeler: 31%Dobbins: 82%
WOPREkeler: 0.07 (best)Dobbins: 0.06
RZ target shareEkeler: 14% (best)Dobbins: 0%
Inside 10 target shareEkeler: 0%Dobbins: 0%
Catch rateEkeler: 80%Dobbins: 89% (best)
Rushing points / gameEkeler: 1.0 pts / gameDobbins: 6.8 pts / game (best)
Rushing floorEkeler: 1.0 pts / gameDobbins: 5.6 pts / game (best)
Range
FloorEkeler: 3.9 (best)Dobbins: 3.8
CeilingEkeler: 10.1Dobbins: 10.3 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerEkeler: 0%Dobbins: 31%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Ekeler: 3 gamesDobbins: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterEkeler: 3 gamesDobbins: 67%
SteadinessEkeler: 3 gamesDobbins: Steady±5.1 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionEkeler: C- (best)2026, 7 gmDobbins: D+2026, 6 gm
Game scriptEkeler: Expected to lead (best)Dobbins: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterEkeler: 0.4 (best)Dobbins: 1.7
Defense funnelEkeler: NeutralDobbins: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedEkeler: 27th (soft) (best)Dobbins: 13th (average)
Backfield roleEkeler: BackupDobbins: Committee
Opp defender outEkeler: None listedDobbins: Norman-Lott (DT)
Roof / surfacegrassEkeler: OpenDobbins: Open
Rest / scheduleEkeler: Off a byeDobbins: Normal
Opp paceEkeler: 27th (slow)Dobbins: 24th (slow) (best)
Opp stuff rateEkeler: 16% (best)22nd (soft)Dobbins: 21%9th (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowedEkeler: 4.3 (best)21st (average)Dobbins: 3.42nd (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedEkeler: 24th (soft) (best)Dobbins: 12th (average)
Opp deep targets allowed / game1st (tough)Ekeler: 0.0Dobbins: 0.0
Opp catch rate allowedEkeler: 72%9th (tough)Dobbins: 79% (best)17th (average)
Starting QBEkeler: Daniels (Active)Dobbins: Nix (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgEkeler: 3.4Dobbins: 12.4 (best)
Last 5 avgEkeler: 3.4Dobbins: 10.2 (best)
vs seasonEkeler: CoolingDobbins: +4.1 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryEkeler: 3.9 (best)Dobbins: 3.4
Carries / gameEkeler: 2.7Dobbins: 12.4 (best)
Yards per route runEkeler: 2.31 (best)Dobbins: 0.87
Receiving aDOTEkeler: −2.4Dobbins: −1.1
Touch share trendEkeler: Left 2 games hurtDobbins: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesEkeler: Not widely startedDobbins: 38%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterEkeler: RB35 (best)Dobbins: RB36
Yards linerushingEkeler: Our estimateDobbins: 22.5

Deciding on someone else?

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