Jones
RB · MIN @ DET
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Limited · Knee
Projected points12.6ptsUsage estimate
15.6 if he plays · 80% to play
Dobbins
RB · DEN vs KC
Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET
Projected points6.4pts
Start · check inactives
Bench
Aaron Jones or J.K. Dobbins: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Aaron Jones. If he's inactive, start J.K. Dobbins.
- Ahead by
- +9.2pts
- over Dobbins if he plays
- Confidence
- Depends on inactives
- Aaron Jones may not play (about 80% to play)
- Started
- 43%
- of leagues
Jones's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
If Aaron Jones is inactive, start J.K. Dobbins.
Risk
Aaron Jones was limited in practice (knee): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. If he sits, start J.K. Dobbins. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
JonesStart · check inactivesRB · MIN @ DETUsually 14.0−1.4pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
Hurts him
- −3.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 3.0 points off his projection.
- −1.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- −1.0ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
DobbinsIf he sitsRB · DEN vs KCUsually 8.3−1.9pts this week
Helps him
- 1.1inside the 5He averages 1.1 carries a game inside the 5, so touchdowns stay in reach.
- +4.1last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 4.1 points above his season average.
- 3games in a rowHe has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games.
Hurts him
- −1.9ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 22.5 rushing yards, below his usual 41.9.
- −0.5ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.35 touchdowns, below his usual 0.43.
- KCvs RBsEdgeKC is the 9th toughest defense for running backs.
- 41%snapsHe plays only 41% of snaps, so his work comes in rotation.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionJones: 12.6 (best)Dobbins: 6.4
TD pointsof the projectionJones: Our estimateDobbins: 2.1
Expected TDsthis weekJones: Our estimateDobbins: 0.35
Projected team pointsJones: 21.3 (best)Dobbins: 19.8
Goal line carriesper gameJones: 0.2Dobbins: 1.1 (best)
Red zone carriesper gameJones: 1.8Dobbins: 1.9 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameJones: 0.5 (best)Dobbins: 0.0
Role
Snap shareJones: 65% (best)Dobbins: 41%
Usage worthptsJones: 13.9 (best)Dobbins: 10.3
Touch shareJones: 41% (best)Dobbins: 31%
Target shareJones: 11% (best)Dobbins: 5%
Touches / gameJones: 19.7 (best)Dobbins: 13.6
Targets / gameJones: 3.2 (best)Dobbins: 1.3
Vacated touches this weekJones: 0.0Dobbins: 2.6 (best)
High value touches / gameJones: 2.7 (best)Dobbins: 2.6
Goal line carry shareJones: 50%Dobbins: 62% (best)
Red zone touches / gameJones: 2.3 (best)Dobbins: 1.9
Rush success rateJones: 35% (best)Dobbins: 30%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Jones: 1.0% (best)Dobbins: 0%
Usage worth vs scoredJones: Earned by usage 13.9Scored 12.3Dobbins: Earned by usage 10.3Scored 8.3
Rush yards / gameJones: 72.7 (best)Dobbins: 41.9
Points from rushingJones: 75%Dobbins: 82%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsJones: BelowDobbins: 0 RZ targets
WOPRJones: 0.17 (best)Dobbins: 0.06
RZ target shareJones: 14% (best)Dobbins: 0%
Inside 10 target shareJones: 0%Dobbins: 0%
Catch rateJones: 68%Dobbins: 89% (best)
Rushing points / gameJones: 9.3 pts / game (best)Dobbins: 6.8 pts / game
Rushing floorJones: 6.6 pts / game (best)Dobbins: 5.6 pts / game
Range
FloorJones: 9.6 (best)Dobbins: 3.8
CeilingJones: 18.7 (best)Dobbins: 10.3
Points from TDssteadier when lowerJones: 16%Dobbins: 31%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Jones: 0%Dobbins: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterJones: 22% (best)Dobbins: 67%
SteadinessJones: Very steady (best)±4.8 ptsDobbins: Steady±5.1 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 6 gmJones: C (best)Dobbins: D+
Game scriptJones: Expected to trailDobbins: Expected to trail (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterJones: 1.0 (best)Dobbins: 1.7
Defense funnelJones: NeutralDobbins: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedJones: 12th (average)Dobbins: 13th (average) (best)
Backfield roleJones: LeadDobbins: Committee
Roof / surfaceJones: DometurfDobbins: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleJones: NormalDobbins: Normal
Opp paceJones: 4th (fast) (best)Dobbins: 24th (slow)
Opp stuff rateJones: 18% (best)16th (average)Dobbins: 21%9th (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowedJones: 4.1 (best)12th (average)Dobbins: 3.42nd (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedJones: 32nd (soft) (best)Dobbins: 12th (average)
Opp deep targets allowed / game1st (tough)Jones: 0.0Dobbins: 0.0
Opp catch rate allowedJones: 74%12th (average)Dobbins: 79% (best)17th (average)
Starting QBJones: Murray (Active)Dobbins: Nix (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgJones: 13.0 (best)Dobbins: 12.4
Last 5 avgJones: 12.8 (best)Dobbins: 10.2
vs seasonJones: +0.7 (Steady)Dobbins: +4.1 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryJones: 4.2 (best)Dobbins: 3.4
Carries / gameJones: 17.5 (best)Dobbins: 12.4
Yards per route runJones: 0.85Dobbins: 0.87 (best)
Receiving aDOTJones: −0.3Dobbins: −1.1
Touch share trendJones: Left Week 7 hurtDobbins: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesJones: 43% (best)Dobbins: 38%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterJones: RB20 (best)Dobbins: RB36
Yards linerushingJones: Our estimateDobbins: 22.5
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.