New
Week8 · 2026
Starting1
Scoring
New comparison
Toss-up

Ekeler

RB · WAS vs PHI

Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ET

Projected points6.5ptsUsage estimate

First out

Johnson

RB · BUF vs BAL

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET

Projected points5.9pts

Toss-up

Bench

Austin Ekeler or Ty Johnson: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Toss-up. Austin Ekeler gets the nod over Ty Johnson.

Ahead by
+0.6pts
over Johnson
Confidence
Lower
The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate

Ekeler's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.

Case for Johnson

The case for Johnson is an offense expected to score more (28.8 points to 23.3) and more of the snaps (24% to 16%).

Flips if

Start Ty Johnson instead if you want more of the snaps (24% to 16%).

Risk

The risk: Ekeler has been held under 8 points in 3 straight games.

Highlights

Injuries as of Fri 3:00 PM ET
EkelerToss-upRB · WAS vs PHIUsually 6.2+0.3pts this week

Helps him

  1. +4.1ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.

Hurts him

  1. −2.3ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
  2. −1.2ptsrecent workHis work has dropped off in his last few games.
  3. 9%touchesHe handles only 9% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
  4. 2nd toughestper carryEdgePHI allows plenty of RB chances because teams run on them a lot; per carry or target they’re tough (0.72 pts, 2nd toughest).
JohnsonFirst outRB · BUF vs BALUsually 7.0−1.1pts this week

Helps him

  1. +0.9ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.15 touchdowns, above his usual 0.00.
  2. 28.8team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 28.8 points, a high scoring spot.

Hurts him

  1. −2.3ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 15.5 receiving yards, below his usual 38.8.
  2. −0.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 2.5 catches, below his usual 3.0.
  3. 7%touchesHe handles only 7% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
  4. BALvs RBsEdgeBAL is the 4th toughest defense for running backs.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Stat
Scoring
ProjectionEkeler: 6.5 (best)Johnson: 5.9
TD pointsof the projectionEkeler: Our estimateJohnson: 0.9
Expected TDsthis weekEkeler: Our estimateJohnson: 0.15
Projected team pointsEkeler: 23.3Johnson: 28.8 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameEkeler: 0.0Johnson: 0.0
Red zone carriesper gameEkeler: 0.7 (best)Johnson: 0.3
Red zone targetsper gameEkeler: 0.3Johnson: 0.3
Role
Snap shareEkeler: 16%Johnson: 24% (best)
Usage worthptsEkeler: 4.0Johnson: 4.7 (best)
Touch shareEkeler: 9% (best)Johnson: 7%
Target shareEkeler: 5%Johnson: 13% (best)
Touches / gameEkeler: 4.0 (best)Johnson: 3.5
Targets / gameEkeler: 1.7Johnson: 3.0 (best)
Vacated touches this weekEkeler: 14.8 (best)Johnson: 0.0
High value touches / gameEkeler: 1.3Johnson: 3.0 (best)
Goal line carry shareEkeler: 0%Johnson: 0%
Red zone touches / gameEkeler: 1.0 (best)Johnson: 0.5
Rush success rateEkeler: 38% (best)Johnson: 0%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Ekeler: 0%Johnson: 0%
Usage worth vs scoredEkeler: Earned by usage 4.0Scored 3.4Johnson: Earned by usage 4.7Scored 7.0
Rush yards / gameEkeler: 10.3 (best)Johnson: 1.5
Points from rushingEkeler: 31%Johnson: 2%
WOPREkeler: 0.07Johnson: 0.18 (best)
RZ target shareEkeler: 14% (best)Johnson: 6%
Inside 10 target shareEkeler: 0%Johnson: 0%
Catch rateEkeler: 80%Johnson: 100% (best)
Rushing points / gameEkeler: 1.0 pts / game (best)Johnson: 0.2 pts / game
Rushing floorEkeler: 1.0 pts / game (best)Johnson: 0.2 pts / game
Range
FloorEkeler: 3.9 (best)Johnson: 3.2
CeilingEkeler: 10.1 (best)Johnson: 8.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerEkeler: 0%Johnson: 0%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Ekeler: 3 gamesJohnson: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterEkeler: 3 gamesJohnson: 83%
SteadinessEkeler: 3 gamesJohnson: Volatile±5.2 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmEkeler: C- (best)Johnson: D+
Game scriptEkeler: Expected to lead (best)Johnson: Expected to lead
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterEkeler: 0.4 (best)Johnson: 0.9
Defense funnelEkeler: NeutralJohnson: Pass
Opp rush yds allowedEkeler: 27th (soft) (best)Johnson: 9th (tough)
Backfield roleEkeler: BackupJohnson: Backup
Opp defender outEkeler: None listedJohnson: Robinson (LB)
Roof / surfaceEkeler: OpengrassJohnson: Openturf
Rest / scheduleEkeler: Off a byeJohnson: Off a bye
Opp paceEkeler: 27th (slow)Johnson: 17th (average) (best)
Opp stuff rateEkeler: 16% (best)22nd (soft)Johnson: 22%6th (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowedEkeler: 4.3 (best)21st (average)Johnson: 3.88th (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedEkeler: 24th (soft) (best)Johnson: 15th (average)
Opp deep targets allowed / game1st (tough)Ekeler: 0.0Johnson: 0.0
Opp catch rate allowedEkeler: 72%9th (tough)Johnson: 74% (best)13th (average)
Starting QBEkeler: Daniels (Active)Johnson: Allen (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgEkeler: 3.4Johnson: 6.4 (best)
Last 5 avgEkeler: 3.4Johnson: 7.0 (best)
vs seasonEkeler: Cooling (best)Johnson: −0.7
Yards per carryEkeler: 3.9Johnson: 2 carries
Carries / gameEkeler: 2.7 (best)Johnson: 0.5
Yards per route runEkeler: 2.31Johnson: 3.69 (best)
Receiving aDOTEkeler: −2.4Johnson: −0.6
Touch share trendEkeler: Left 2 games hurtJohnson: Steady
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterEkeler: RB34 (best)Johnson: RB39
Yards linerushingEkeler: Our estimateJohnson: 9.8

Deciding on someone else?

Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.

Sit or start?