Allen
RB · NYJ vs LV
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points12.0ptsUsage estimate
Dobbins
RB · DEN vs KC
Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET
Projected points6.4pts
Lean
Bench
Braelon Allen or J.K. Dobbins: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Lean Braelon Allen over J.K. Dobbins.
- Ahead by
- +5.6pts
- over Dobbins
- Confidence
- Moderate
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 54%
- of leagues
Allen's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
Start J.K. Dobbins instead if you want more of the goal line work (62% of the carries inside the 5 to 25%).
Risk
The risk: Dobbins has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games.
Highlights
AllenLeanRB · NYJ vs LVUsually 10.9+1.1pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- LVvs RBsEdgeLV is the 6th softest defense for running backs.
Hurts him
- −2.1ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
DobbinsFirst outRB · DEN vs KCUsually 8.3−1.9pts this week
Helps him
- 1.1inside the 5He averages 1.1 carries a game inside the 5, so touchdowns stay in reach.
- 3games in a rowHe has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games.
Hurts him
- −1.9ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 22.5 rushing yards, below his usual 41.9.
- −0.5ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.35 touchdowns, below his usual 0.43.
- KCvs RBsEdgeKC is the 9th toughest defense for running backs.
- 41%snapsHe plays only 41% of snaps, so his work comes in rotation.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionAllen: 12.0 (best)Dobbins: 6.4
TD pointsof the projectionAllen: Our estimateDobbins: 2.1
Expected TDsthis weekAllen: Our estimateDobbins: 0.35
Projected team pointsAllen: 23.5 (best)Dobbins: 19.8
Goal line carriesper gameAllen: 0.3Dobbins: 1.1 (best)
Red zone carriesper gameAllen: 1.3Dobbins: 1.9 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameAllen: 0.7 (best)Dobbins: 0.0
Role
Snap shareAllen: 67% (best)Dobbins: 41%
Usage worthptsAllen: 11.7 (best)Dobbins: 10.3
Touch shareAllen: 33% (best)Dobbins: 31%
Target shareAllen: 10% (best)Dobbins: 5%
Touches / gameAllen: 15.1 (best)Dobbins: 13.6
Targets / gameAllen: 2.9 (best)Dobbins: 1.3
Air yards shareAllen: 0.2%Dobbins: Behind the line
Vacated touches this weekAllen: 0.0Dobbins: 2.6 (best)
High value touches / gameAllen: 2.4Dobbins: 2.6 (best)
Goal line carry shareAllen: 25%Dobbins: 62% (best)
Red zone touches / gameAllen: 2.0 (best)Dobbins: 1.9
Rush success rateAllen: 42% (best)Dobbins: 30%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Allen: 2.2% (best)Dobbins: 0%
Usage worth vs scoredAllen: Earned by usage 11.7Scored 10.9Dobbins: Earned by usage 10.3Scored 8.3
Rush yards / gameAllen: 59.7 (best)Dobbins: 41.9
Points from rushingAllen: 71%Dobbins: 82%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsAllen: BelowDobbins: 0 RZ targets
WOPRAllen: 0.16 (best)Dobbins: 0.06
RZ target shareAllen: 22% (best)Dobbins: 0%
Inside 10 target shareAllen: 0%Dobbins: 0%
Catch rateAllen: 75%Dobbins: 89% (best)
Rushing points / gameAllen: 7.7 pts / game (best)Dobbins: 6.8 pts / game
Rushing floorAllen: 5.1 pts / gameDobbins: 5.6 pts / game (best)
Range
FloorAllen: 7.8 (best)Dobbins: 3.8
CeilingAllen: 19.6 (best)Dobbins: 10.3
Points from TDssteadier when lowerAllen: 16%Dobbins: 31%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Allen: 0%Dobbins: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterAllen: 29% (best)Dobbins: 67%
SteadinessAllen: Steady (best)±6.2 pts · 7 gamesDobbins: Steady±5.1 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionAllen: B+ (best)2026, 7 gmDobbins: D+2026, 6 gm
Game scriptAllen: Expected to lead (best)Dobbins: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterAllen: 1.7Dobbins: 1.7
Defense funnelAllen: NeutralDobbins: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedAllen: 30th (soft) (best)Dobbins: 13th (average)
Backfield roleAllen: LeadDobbins: Committee
Opp defender outAllen: None listedDobbins: Norman-Lott (DT)
Roof / surfaceAllen: OpenturfDobbins: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleAllen: NormalDobbins: Normal
Opp paceAllen: 9th (fast) (best)Dobbins: 24th (slow)
Opp stuff rateAllen: 13% (best)29th (soft)Dobbins: 21%9th (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowedAllen: 5.2 (best)31st (soft)Dobbins: 3.42nd (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedAllen: 22nd (soft) (best)Dobbins: 12th (average)
Opp deep targets allowed / game1st (tough)Allen: 0.0Dobbins: 0.0
Opp catch rate allowedAllen: 93% (best)32nd (soft)Dobbins: 79%17th (average)
Starting QBAllen: Smith (Active)Dobbins: Nix (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgAllen: 16.8 (best)Dobbins: 12.4
Last 5 avgAllen: 12.8 (best)Dobbins: 10.2
vs seasonAllen: +5.9 (Rising) (best)Dobbins: +4.1 (Rising)
Yards per carryAllen: 4.6 (best)Dobbins: 3.4
Carries / gameAllen: 13.0 (best)Dobbins: 12.4
Yards per route runAllen: 0.71Dobbins: 0.87 (best)
Receiving aDOTAllen: 0.2Dobbins: −1.1
Touch share trendAllen: SteadyDobbins: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesAllen: 55% (best)Dobbins: 38%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterAllen: RB21 (best)Dobbins: RB36
Yards linerushingAllen: Our estimateDobbins: 22.5
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.