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Scoring
#1 Start

Williams

QB · CHI vs NYJ

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

17.7pts

opportunity

Mod Conf
Bench

Young

QB · CAR vs DET

Sun 8:20 PM

Proj pts

17.2pts

market

Mod Conf

Bryce Young or Caleb Williams: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Caleb Williams over Bryce Young by 0.5. Caleb Williams leads at 17.7. Bryce Young is the first one out, 0.5 short.

Crowd: 69% of managers started Young.

Availability & news

  • Caleb WilliamsPractice: DNP

    Williams (hamstring) remained a non-participant at practice Thursday.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)

  • Bryce YoungPractice: Full

    Young (knee) was listed as a full participant on Wednesday's practice estimate, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports.(rotowire, Sep 30, 2026)

Highlights

Caleb WilliamsStart
QB · CHI vs NYJ

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs QB
Bryce YoungBench
QB · CAR vs DET

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs QB
  • Spike upside28.9 ceiling
  • Heating up23.1 last 3

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

WilliamsStart
YoungBench
Projection17.717.2
Floor13.614.9
Ceiling22.528.9
Pass attempts33.429.9
Matchup grade(recency weighted)A+A-
Implied team total23.523.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is bust rate: Williams 6%, Young 12%.

Williams (Practice: DNP): “Williams (hamstring) remained a non-participant at practice Thursday.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.

Young (Practice: Full): “Young (knee) was listed as a full participant on Wednesday's practice estimate, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official site reports.” — RotoWire, Sep 30, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Williams 7.7, Young 13.6 (PPR points).

Why Caleb Williams

Start Caleb Williams — projects 17.7, a favorable matchup vs NYJ.

Caleb Williams projects 17.7 points on a 13.6–22.5 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYJ. Usage: pass attempts / game at 33.4. Net: start Caleb Williams this week.

Working for Williams: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs QB).

Where Williams leads the head-to-head: Projection (17.7 vs 17.2); Pass attempts (33.4 vs 29.9); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs A-); Last 5 avg (21.5 vs 18.9); vs season (+2.9 vs -0.1); Consistency (61% vs 46%); Bust rate (6% vs 12%); Pass attempts / game (33.4 vs 29.9); Completions / game (19.4 vs 19.0); Yards per attempt (6.9 vs 6.3); Rush attempts / game (4.5 vs 3.4); Rush yards / game (22.5 vs 13.5); Rushing production share (17% vs 15%).

Why Bryce Young

Sit Bryce Young — projects 17.2, a favorable matchup vs DET.

Bryce Young projects 17.2 points on a 14.9–28.9 range. The matchup grades as favorable against DET. Usage: pass attempts / game at 29.9. Net: bench Bryce Young this week.

Working for Young: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs QB), Spike upside (28.9 ceiling), Heating up (23.1 last 3).

Where Young leads the head-to-head: Floor (14.9 vs 13.6); Ceiling (28.9 vs 22.5); Last 3 avg (23.1 vs 21.2); Boom rate (19% vs 12%).

Recent form

Caleb Williams's last 5 games: PPR points 21, 23, 18.6, 37.3, 7.7 (oldest to newest).

Bryce Young's last 5 games: PPR points 8.9, 16.5, 31.4, 24.1, 13.6 (oldest to newest).

Williams has already beaten Young's 17.2 projection in 4 of his 5; Young has beaten Williams's 17.7 in 2 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Caleb Williams (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.

Bryce Young (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.

What flips it

Williams's edge is 0.5 points (17.7 to 17.2). Young's ceiling (28.9) clears Williams's projection, so a big game from Young flips it. Williams's floor (13.6) sits under Young's projection, so a quiet game from Williams flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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More Caleb Williams comparisons

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