Williams
QB · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
17.7pts
opportunity
Burrow
QB · CIN vs JAX
Proj pts
17.6pts
market
Caleb Williams or Joe Burrow: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Caleb Williams over Joe Burrow by 0.1. Caleb Williams leads at 17.7. Joe Burrow is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Crowd: 79% of managers started Burrow.
Availability & news
Caleb WilliamsPractice: DNP
Williams (hamstring) remained a non-participant at practice Thursday.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs QB
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.0 team total
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is rushing production share: Williams 17%, Burrow 3%.
Williams (Practice: DNP): “Williams (hamstring) remained a non-participant at practice Thursday.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.
Latest game on the card: Williams 7.7, Burrow 22.6 (PPR points).
Why Caleb Williams
Start Caleb Williams — projects 17.7, a favorable matchup vs NYJ.
Caleb Williams projects 17.7 points on a 13.6–22.5 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYJ. Usage: pass attempts / game at 33.4. Net: start Caleb Williams this week.
Working for Williams: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs QB).
Where Williams leads the head-to-head: Projection (17.7 vs 17.6); Pass attempts (33.4 vs 32.4); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs C); Last 3 avg (21.2 vs 17.6); Last 5 avg (21.5 vs 18.9); vs season (+2.9 vs +1.0); Consistency (61% vs 52%); Bust rate (6% vs 25%); Pass attempts / game (33.4 vs 32.4); Rush attempts / game (4.5 vs 1.8); Rush yards / game (22.5 vs 5.1); Rushing production share (17% vs 3%).
Why Joe Burrow
Sit Joe Burrow — projects 17.6, an even matchup vs JAX.
Joe Burrow projects 17.6 points on a 15.6–23.1 range. The matchup grades as neutral against JAX. Usage: pass attempts / game at 32.4. Net: bench Joe Burrow this week.
Working for Burrow: High-scoring spot (27.0 team total).
Where Burrow leads the head-to-head: Floor (15.6 vs 13.6); Ceiling (23.1 vs 22.5); Implied team total (27.0 vs 23.5); Completions / game (21.6 vs 19.4); Yards per attempt (7.0 vs 6.9); Touchdown rate (7% vs 5%).
Recent form
Caleb Williams's last 5 games: PPR points 21, 23, 18.6, 37.3, 7.7 (oldest to newest).
Joe Burrow's last 5 games: PPR points 20.4, 21.1, 14.2, 16.2, 22.6 (oldest to newest).
Williams has already beaten Burrow's 17.6 projection in 4 of his 5; Burrow has beaten Williams's 17.7 in 3 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Caleb Williams (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
Joe Burrow (CIN) faces JAX, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 27.0, spread -2.5.
What flips it
Williams's edge is 0.1 points (17.7 to 17.6). Burrow's ceiling (23.1) clears Williams's projection, so a big game from Burrow flips it. Williams's floor (13.6) sits under Burrow's projection, so a quiet game from Williams flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Caleb Williams comparisons
- Caleb Williams or Dak Prescott17.7 · 17.7
- Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence17.7 · 17.8
- Caleb Williams or Lamar Jackson17.7 · 17.9
- Bryce Young or Caleb Williams17.2 · 17.7
More Joe Burrow comparisons
- Dak Prescott or Joe Burrow17.7 · 17.6
- Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence17.6 · 17.8
- Bryce Young or Joe Burrow17.2 · 17.6
- Joe Burrow or Marcus Mariota17.6 · 17.1
This week's toughest calls
- Drake Maye or Tyler Shough17.9 · 17.9
- Brock Purdy or Jayden Daniels17.1 · 17.0
- Bo Nix or Jared Goff16.7 · 16.7
- Geno Smith or Jordan Love16.3 · 16.3
- Jayden Daniels or Patrick Mahomes17.0 · 17.0
- Brock Purdy or Patrick Mahomes17.1 · 17.0
- More QB start/sit calls (quarterbacks this week)