Otton
TE · TB vs GB
Proj pts
8.4pts
market
Hockenson
TE · MIN vs MIA
Proj pts
6.9pts
opportunity
Cade Otton or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Cade Otton. Bench T.J. Hockenson. Cade Otton leads at 8.4. T.J. Hockenson is the first one out, 1.5 short.
Crowd: 32% of managers started Hockenson.
Highlights
Cons
- Low team total18.0 team total
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
Cons
- Below your start line1.5 pts short
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touchdown dependence: Otton 5%, Hockenson 16%.
Latest game on the card: Otton 8.6, Hockenson 3.1 (PPR points).
Why Cade Otton
Start Cade Otton — projects 8.4, an even matchup vs GB.
Cade Otton projects 8.4 points on a 5.2–9.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against GB. Usage: targets / game at 5.4. Net: start Cade Otton this week.
Working against Otton: Low team total (18.0 team total).
Where Otton leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.4 vs 6.9); Floor (5.2 vs 5.1); Target share (18% vs 16%); Last 3 avg (7.7 vs 7.5); Last 5 avg (11.3 vs 6.9); vs season (+3.2 vs -0.2); Boom rate (20% vs 13%); Targets / game (5.4 vs 4.4); Snap share (94% vs 78%).
Why T.J. Hockenson
Sit T.J. Hockenson — projects 6.9, a favorable matchup vs MIA.
T.J. Hockenson projects 6.9 points on a 5.1–11.4 range. The matchup grades as favorable against MIA. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: bench T.J. Hockenson this week.
Working for Hockenson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE).
Working against Hockenson: Below your start line (1.5 pts short).
Where Hockenson leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (11.4 vs 9.2); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs C-); Implied team total (24.5 vs 18.0); Consistency (48% vs 31%); Bust rate (20% vs 27%); Red zone targets (11 vs 7); Touchdown dependence (16% vs 5%); Grade vs TE (recency weighted) (A vs C-); Implied total (24.5 vs 18.0).
Recent form
Cade Otton's last 4 games: PPR points 22.4, 5.6, 8.8, 8.6 (oldest to newest).
T.J. Hockenson's last 5 games: PPR points 10.6, 1.2, 13.6, 5.9, 3.1 (oldest to newest).
Otton has already beaten Hockenson's 6.9 projection in 3 of his 4; Hockenson has beaten Otton's 8.4 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Cade Otton (TB) faces GB, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 18.0, spread +3.5.
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) faces MIA, kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread -10.5.
What flips it
Otton's edge is 1.5 points (8.4 to 6.9). Hockenson's ceiling (11.4) clears Otton's projection, so a big game from Hockenson flips it. Otton's floor (5.2) sits under Hockenson's projection, so a quiet game from Otton flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
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- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- Colston Loveland or AJ Barner11.3 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)