Shough
QB · NO vs ATL
Proj pts
17.9pts
market
Williams
QB · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
17.7pts
opportunity
Caleb Williams or Tyler Shough: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Tyler Shough over Caleb Williams by 0.2. Tyler Shough leads at 17.9. Caleb Williams is the first one out, 0.2 short.
Crowd: 80% of managers started Shough.
Availability & news
Caleb WilliamsPractice: DNP
Williams (hamstring) remained a non-participant at practice Thursday.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)
Highlights
Pros
- High floor17.9 floor
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs QB
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is bust rate: Shough 10%, Williams 6%.
Williams (Practice: DNP): “Williams (hamstring) remained a non-participant at practice Thursday.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.
Latest game on the card: Shough 23.8, Williams 7.7 (PPR points).
Why Tyler Shough
Start Tyler Shough — projects 17.9, an even matchup vs ATL.
Tyler Shough projects 17.9 points on a 17.9–22.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against ATL. Usage: pass attempts / game at 29.7. Net: start Tyler Shough this week.
Working for Shough: High floor (17.9 floor).
Where Shough leads the head-to-head: Projection (17.9 vs 17.7); Floor (17.9 vs 13.6); Ceiling (22.9 vs 22.5); Implied team total (25.0 vs 23.5); Last 3 avg (23.1 vs 21.2); Last 5 avg (22.6 vs 21.5); vs season (+3.0 vs +2.9); Consistency (63% vs 61%); Completions / game (20.1 vs 19.4); Yards per attempt (7.3 vs 6.9); Rushing production share (23% vs 17%).
Why Caleb Williams
Sit Caleb Williams — projects 17.7, a favorable matchup vs NYJ.
Caleb Williams projects 17.7 points on a 13.6–22.5 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYJ. Usage: pass attempts / game at 33.4. Net: bench Caleb Williams this week.
Working for Williams: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs QB).
Where Williams leads the head-to-head: Pass attempts (33.4 vs 29.7); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs B-); Boom rate (12% vs 0%); Bust rate (6% vs 10%); Pass attempts / game (33.4 vs 29.7); Touchdown rate (5% vs 3%); Rush attempts / game (4.5 vs 4.1); Rush yards / game (22.5 vs 16.9).
Recent form
Tyler Shough's last 5 games: PPR points 21.9, 21.8, 23.2, 22.4, 23.8 (oldest to newest).
Caleb Williams's last 5 games: PPR points 21, 23, 18.6, 37.3, 7.7 (oldest to newest).
Shough has already beaten Williams's 17.7 projection in 5 of his 5; Williams has beaten Shough's 17.9 in 4 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Tyler Shough (NO) faces ATL, kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 25.0, spread -2.5.
Caleb Williams (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Shough's edge is 0.2 points (17.9 to 17.7). Williams's ceiling (22.5) clears Shough's projection, so a big game from Williams flips it. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Caleb Williams comparisons
- Caleb Williams or Dak Prescott17.7 · 17.7
- Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence17.7 · 17.8
- Caleb Williams or Joe Burrow17.7 · 17.6
- Caleb Williams or Lamar Jackson17.7 · 17.9
More Tyler Shough comparisons
- Drake Maye or Tyler Shough17.9 · 17.9
- Lamar Jackson or Tyler Shough17.9 · 17.9
- Trevor Lawrence or Tyler Shough17.8 · 17.9
- Dak Prescott or Tyler Shough17.7 · 17.9
This week's toughest calls
- Brock Purdy or Jayden Daniels17.1 · 17.0
- Bo Nix or Jared Goff16.7 · 16.7
- Geno Smith or Jordan Love16.3 · 16.3
- Jayden Daniels or Patrick Mahomes17.0 · 17.0
- Brock Purdy or Patrick Mahomes17.1 · 17.0
- Jordan Love or Kyler Murray16.3 · 16.3
- More QB start/sit calls (quarterbacks this week)