Warren
TE · IND vs WAS
Proj pts
16.2pts
market
Kincaid
TE · BUF vs NE
Proj pts
15.5pts
market
Dalton Kincaid or Tyler Warren: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Tyler Warren. Bench Dalton Kincaid. Tyler Warren leads at 16.2. Dalton Kincaid is the first one out, 0.7 short.
Crowd: started Warren 87% · Kincaid 76%
Highlights
Pros
- Alpha TE usage22% target share
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs TE
- Spike upside20.1 ceiling
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.8 team total
- Spike upside21.9 ceiling
- Heating up14.8 last 3
Cons
- Rotational role37% of snaps
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 6:00 AM ET
Why Tyler Warren
Start Tyler Warren — projects 16.2, a favorable matchup vs WAS, with a rising role.
Tyler Warren projects 16.2 points on a 7.8–20.1 range. The matchup grades as favorable against WAS. Usage: targets / game at 6.6. Net: Tyler Warren is start this week.
Working for Warren: Alpha TE usage (22% target share), Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs TE), Spike upside (20.1 ceiling).
Where Warren leads the head-to-head: Projection (16.2 vs 15.5); Floor (7.8 vs 5.8); Target share (22% vs 15%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A- vs B-); Last 5 avg (11.5 vs 10.4); vs season (+2.2 vs +0.0); Consistency (59% vs 45%); Boom rate (24% vs 20%); Bust rate (12% vs 20%); Targets / game (6.6 vs 4.1); Snap share (84% vs 37%); Red zone targets (23 vs 11); Grade vs TE (recency weighted) (A- vs B-).
Why Dalton Kincaid
Sit Dalton Kincaid — projects 15.5, an even matchup vs NE, with a rising role.
Dalton Kincaid projects 15.5 points on a 5.8–21.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NE. Usage: targets / game at 4.1. Net: Dalton Kincaid is a bench this week.
Working for Kincaid: High-scoring spot (27.8 team total), Spike upside (21.9 ceiling), Heating up (14.8 last 3).
Working against Kincaid: Rotational role (37% of snaps).
Where Kincaid leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (21.9 vs 20.1); Implied team total (27.8 vs 25.5); Last 3 avg (14.8 vs 13.1); Touchdown dependence (24% vs 12%); Implied total (27.8 vs 25.5).
Recent form
Tyler Warren's last 5 games: PPR points 9.3, 8.6, 10.3, 14.4, 14.7 (oldest to newest).
Dalton Kincaid's last 5 games: PPR points 0, 7.8, 18, 22.5, 3.8 (oldest to newest).
Warren has already beaten Kincaid's 15.5 projection in 0 of his 5; Kincaid has beaten Warren's 16.2 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 were played before the 2026 season — the card does not date them.
Matchup
Tyler Warren (IND) faces WAS, kickoff Sun 9:30 AM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 25.5, spread -3.5.
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) faces NE, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 27.8, spread -7.0.
What flips it
Warren's edge is 0.7 points (16.2 to 15.5). Kincaid's ceiling (21.9) clears Warren's projection, so a big game from Kincaid flips it. Warren's floor (7.8) sits under Kincaid's projection, so a quiet game from Warren flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
How to read these numbers
- Confidence in the call
- How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.
- Floor
- The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Ceiling
- The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Matchup grade
- The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.
- Implied team total
- The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.
- Trend
- The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.
- Consistency
- The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.
- Boom rate
- The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.
- Bust rate
- The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.
- Defense funnel
- Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.
- Game script projection
- The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.