Mooney
WR · NYG vs ARI
Proj pts
6.3pts
market
Ayomanor
WR · TEN vs BAL
Proj pts
6.3pts
market
Darnell Mooney or Elic Ayomanor: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Darnell Mooney over Elic Ayomanor; the two are level at 6.3. Darnell Mooney leads at 6.3. Elic Ayomanor is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Thin volume4.8 targets/g
- Shaky floor4.6 floor
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs WR
Cons
- Low team total15.5 team total
- Shaky floor3.0 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 5 avg: Mooney 5.4, Ayomanor 8.2.
Latest game on the card: Mooney 4.9, Ayomanor 2.1 (PPR points).
Why Darnell Mooney
Start Darnell Mooney — projects 6.3, an even matchup vs ARI.
Darnell Mooney projects 6.3 points on a 4.6–6.7 range. The matchup grades as neutral against ARI. Usage: targets / game at 4.8. Net: start Darnell Mooney this week.
Working against Mooney: Thin volume (4.8 targets/g), Shaky floor (4.6 floor).
Where Mooney leads the head-to-head: Floor (4.6 vs 3.0); Implied team total (21.0 vs 15.5); Boom rate (20% vs 19%); Snap share (82% vs 81%).
Why Elic Ayomanor
Sit Elic Ayomanor — projects 6.3, a favorable matchup vs BAL.
Elic Ayomanor projects 6.3 points on a 3.0–8.9 range. The matchup grades as favorable against BAL. Usage: targets / game at 5.6. Net: bench Elic Ayomanor this week.
Working for Ayomanor: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs WR).
Working against Ayomanor: Low team total (15.5 team total), Shaky floor (3.0 floor).
Where Ayomanor leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (8.9 vs 6.7); Target share (19% vs 16%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs C+); Last 3 avg (6.4 vs 5.5); Last 5 avg (8.2 vs 5.4); vs season (+1.7 vs -0.6); Consistency (44% vs 33%); Bust rate (25% vs 33%); Targets / game (5.6 vs 4.8).
Recent form
Darnell Mooney's last 5 games: PPR points 5.5, 5, 4.7, 6.8, 4.9 (oldest to newest).
Elic Ayomanor's last 5 games: PPR points 13.7, 8, 8.1, 8.9, 2.1 (oldest to newest).
Mooney has already beaten Ayomanor's 6.3 projection in 1 of his 5; Ayomanor has beaten Mooney's 6.3 in 4 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Darnell Mooney (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.0, spread +2.5.
Elic Ayomanor (TEN) faces BAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 15.5, spread +11.5.
What flips it
Mooney and Ayomanor are level on projection (6.3). Ayomanor's ceiling (8.9) clears Mooney's projection, so a big game from Ayomanor flips it. Mooney's floor (4.6) sits under Ayomanor's projection, so a quiet game from Mooney flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)