Dotson
WR · ATL vs NO
Proj pts
6.3pts
market
Mooney
WR · NYG vs ARI
Proj pts
6.3pts
market
Darnell Mooney or Jahan Dotson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Jahan Dotson over Darnell Mooney; the two are level at 6.3. Jahan Dotson leads at 6.3. Darnell Mooney is the first one out, 0.0 short.
Dotson and Mooney are effectively tied on projection — Dotson gets the start on the tie-break.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share8% target share
- Thin volume2.4 targets/g
Cons
- Thin volume4.8 targets/g
- Shaky floor4.6 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Dotson 2.7, Mooney 5.5.
Latest game on the card: Mooney 4.9 (PPR points).
Why Jahan Dotson
Start Jahan Dotson — projects 6.3, an even matchup vs NO.
Jahan Dotson projects 6.3 points on a 2.1–8.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 2.4. Net: start Jahan Dotson this week.
Working against Dotson: Low target share (8% target share), Thin volume (2.4 targets/g).
Where Dotson leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (8.0 vs 6.7); Implied team total (22.5 vs 21.0); vs season (-0.2 vs -0.6); Boom rate (27% vs 20%).
Why Darnell Mooney
Sit Darnell Mooney — projects 6.3, an even matchup vs ARI.
Darnell Mooney projects 6.3 points on a 4.6–6.7 range. The matchup grades as neutral against ARI. Usage: targets / game at 4.8. Net: bench Darnell Mooney this week.
Working against Mooney: Thin volume (4.8 targets/g), Shaky floor (4.6 floor).
Where Mooney leads the head-to-head: Floor (4.6 vs 2.1); Target share (16% vs 8%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (C+ vs C-); Last 3 avg (5.5 vs 2.7); Last 5 avg (5.4 vs 2.7); Consistency (33% vs 0%); Bust rate (33% vs 40%); Targets / game (4.8 vs 2.4); Snap share (82% vs 58%); Red zone targets (8 vs 5).
Recent form
Jahan Dotson's last 3 games: PPR points 2.1, 2.9, 3.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Darnell Mooney's last 5 games: PPR points 5.5, 5, 4.7, 6.8, 4.9 (oldest to newest).
Mooney's worst of these 3 (4.7) beats Dotson's best (3.1) — the run argues the other way.
Dotson has already beaten Mooney's 6.3 projection in 0 of his 3; Mooney has beaten Dotson's 6.3 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Jahan Dotson (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.5, spread +2.5.
Darnell Mooney (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.0, spread +2.5.
What flips it
Dotson and Mooney are level on projection (6.3). Mooney's ceiling (6.7) clears Dotson's projection, so a big game from Mooney flips it. Dotson's floor (2.1) sits under Mooney's projection, so a quiet game from Dotson flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
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