Nailor
WR · LV vs KC
Proj pts
6.6pts
market
Mooney
WR · NYG vs ARI
Proj pts
6.3pts
market
Darnell Mooney or Jalen Nailor: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Jalen Nailor over Darnell Mooney by 0.3. Jalen Nailor leads at 6.6. Darnell Mooney is the first one out, 0.3 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share12% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Cons
- Thin volume4.8 targets/g
- Shaky floor4.6 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is consistency: Nailor 5%, Mooney 33%.
Latest game on the card: Nailor 2.6, Mooney 4.9 (PPR points).
Why Jalen Nailor
Start Jalen Nailor — projects 6.6, an even matchup vs KC.
Jalen Nailor projects 6.6 points on a 1.6–7.6 range. The matchup grades as neutral against KC. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: start Jalen Nailor this week.
Working against Nailor: Low target share (12% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Nailor leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.6 vs 6.3); Ceiling (7.6 vs 6.7); Implied team total (21.5 vs 21.0); Bust rate (29% vs 33%); Red zone targets (13 vs 8).
Why Darnell Mooney
Sit Darnell Mooney — projects 6.3, an even matchup vs ARI.
Darnell Mooney projects 6.3 points on a 4.6–6.7 range. The matchup grades as neutral against ARI. Usage: targets / game at 4.8. Net: bench Darnell Mooney this week.
Working against Mooney: Thin volume (4.8 targets/g), Shaky floor (4.6 floor).
Where Mooney leads the head-to-head: Floor (4.6 vs 1.6); Target share (16% vs 12%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (C+ vs C-); Last 3 avg (5.5 vs 3.4); Last 5 avg (5.4 vs 3.6); vs season (-0.6 vs -1.6); Consistency (33% vs 5%); Boom rate (20% vs 12%); Targets / game (4.8 vs 3.1); Snap share (82% vs 65%).
Recent form
Jalen Nailor's last 5 games: PPR points 0, 7.9, 5.7, 1.9, 2.6 (oldest to newest).
Darnell Mooney's last 5 games: PPR points 5.5, 5, 4.7, 6.8, 4.9 (oldest to newest).
Nailor has already beaten Mooney's 6.3 projection in 1 of his 5; Mooney has beaten Nailor's 6.6 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Jalen Nailor (LV) faces KC, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +4.5.
Darnell Mooney (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.0, spread +2.5.
What flips it
Nailor's edge is 0.3 points (6.6 to 6.3). Mooney's ceiling (6.7) clears Nailor's projection, so a big game from Mooney flips it. Nailor's floor (1.6) sits under Mooney's projection, so a quiet game from Nailor flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)