nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Hurst

WR · TB vs GB

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

6.8pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Mooney

WR · NYG vs ARI

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

6.3pts

market

Lower Conf

Darnell Mooney or Ted Hurst III: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Ted Hurst III over Darnell Mooney by 0.5. Ted Hurst III leads at 6.8. Darnell Mooney is the first one out, 0.5 short.

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Highlights

Ted Hurst IIIStart
WR · TB vs GB

Cons

  • Low target share14% target share
  • Thin volume4.3 targets/g
Darnell MooneyBench
WR · NYG vs ARI

Cons

  • Thin volume4.8 targets/g
  • Shaky floor4.6 floor

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

HurstStart
MooneyBench
Projection6.86.3
Floor—4.6
Ceiling—6.7
Target share14%16%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)C+C+
Implied team total17.521.0

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Hurst 2, Mooney 8.

Latest game on the card: Mooney 4.9 (PPR points).

Why Ted Hurst III

Start Ted Hurst III — projects 6.8, an even matchup vs GB.

Ted Hurst III projects 6.8 points. The matchup grades as neutral against GB. Usage: targets / game at 4.3. Net: start Ted Hurst III this week.

Working against Hurst: Low target share (14% target share), Thin volume (4.3 targets/g).

Where Hurst leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.8 vs 6.3); Last 3 avg (7.4 vs 5.5); Last 5 avg (7.4 vs 5.4); vs season (+0.0 vs -0.6); Consistency (64% vs 33%); Bust rate (0% vs 33%).

Why Darnell Mooney

Sit Darnell Mooney — projects 6.3, an even matchup vs ARI.

Darnell Mooney projects 6.3 points on a 4.6–6.7 range. The matchup grades as neutral against ARI. Usage: targets / game at 4.8. Net: bench Darnell Mooney this week.

Working against Mooney: Thin volume (4.8 targets/g), Shaky floor (4.6 floor).

Where Mooney leads the head-to-head: Target share (16% vs 14%); Implied team total (21.0 vs 17.5); Boom rate (20% vs 0%); Targets / game (4.8 vs 4.3); Snap share (82% vs 75%); Red zone targets (8 vs 2).

Recent form

Ted Hurst III's last 3 games: PPR points 4.7, 6.6, 11 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).

Darnell Mooney's last 5 games: PPR points 5.5, 5, 4.7, 6.8, 4.9 (oldest to newest).

Hurst has already beaten Mooney's 6.3 projection in 2 of his 3; Mooney has beaten Hurst's 6.8 in 0 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Ted Hurst III (TB) faces GB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 17.5, spread +3.5.

Darnell Mooney (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.0, spread +2.5.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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