Thornton
WR · KC vs LV
Proj pts
6.7pts
market
Mooney
WR · NYG vs ARI
Proj pts
6.3pts
market
Darnell Mooney or Tyquan Thornton: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Tyquan Thornton over Darnell Mooney by 0.4. Tyquan Thornton leads at 6.7. Darnell Mooney is the first one out, 0.3 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share9% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Cons
- Thin volume4.8 targets/g
- Shaky floor4.6 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Thornton 4, Mooney 8.
Latest game on the card: Mooney 4.9 (PPR points).
Why Tyquan Thornton
Start Tyquan Thornton — projects 6.7, an even matchup vs LV, with a rising role.
Tyquan Thornton projects 6.7 points on a 1.9–8.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LV. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: start Tyquan Thornton this week.
Working against Thornton: Low target share (9% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Thornton leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.7 vs 6.3); Ceiling (8.2 vs 6.7); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs C+); Implied team total (26.0 vs 21.0); Last 3 avg (5.6 vs 5.5); Last 5 avg (5.6 vs 5.4); vs season (+0.8 vs -0.6); Consistency (36% vs 33%); Boom rate (22% vs 20%); Bust rate (22% vs 33%).
Why Darnell Mooney
Sit Darnell Mooney — projects 6.3, an even matchup vs ARI.
Darnell Mooney projects 6.3 points on a 4.6–6.7 range. The matchup grades as neutral against ARI. Usage: targets / game at 4.8. Net: bench Darnell Mooney this week.
Working against Mooney: Thin volume (4.8 targets/g), Shaky floor (4.6 floor).
Where Mooney leads the head-to-head: Floor (4.6 vs 1.9); Target share (16% vs 9%); Targets / game (4.8 vs 3.1); Snap share (82% vs 43%); Red zone targets (8 vs 4).
Recent form
Tyquan Thornton's last 3 games: PPR points 0, 4.2, 12.6 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Darnell Mooney's last 5 games: PPR points 5.5, 5, 4.7, 6.8, 4.9 (oldest to newest).
Thornton has already beaten Mooney's 6.3 projection in 1 of his 3; Mooney has beaten Thornton's 6.7 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Tyquan Thornton (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.
Darnell Mooney (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.0, spread +2.5.
What flips it
Thornton's edge is 0.4 points (6.7 to 6.3). Thornton's floor (1.9) sits under Mooney's projection, so a quiet game from Thornton flips it. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
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