Sampson
RB · CLE @ PIT
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETNo game status yet, practice Full
Projected points6.3pts
Barkley
RB · PHI @ WAS
Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ETLatest report: DNP · Hamstring
Projected points6.0ptsUsage estimate
13.2 if he plays · 46% to play
Toss-up
Bench
Dylan Sampson or Saquon Barkley: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Dylan Sampson gets the nod over Saquon Barkley.
- Ahead by
- +0.3pts
- over Barkley
- Confidence
- Lower
- Saquon Barkley may not play (about 46% to play)
Barkley's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Barkley
The case for Barkley is the easier matchup (the 16th toughest defense for running backs, while Sampson faces the 3rd toughest defense for running backs) and more big weeks (10% of his games to 0%).
Flips if
This turns on the inactives list, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff.
Risk
Dylan Sampson has played 1 game since missing time, so his recent numbers lean on his 2025 games. Saquon Barkley missed practice (hamstring): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. Saquon Barkley has played 1 game since missing time, so his recent numbers lean on his 2025 games. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
SampsonToss-upRB · CLE @ PITUsually 9.6−3.3pts this week
Helps him
- +0.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 2.5 catches, above his usual 2.0.
Hurts him
- −1.4pts2 linesRushing yards 12.5 (usual 21.1) and receiving yards 16.5 (usual 21.2) both sit below his usual.
BarkleyFirst outRB · PHI @ WASUsually 12.5−6.5pts this week
Helps him
- +5.8ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.
- +5.0ptsroleWith Pierce out, his expected role grows this week.
Hurts him
- −9.5ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 9.5 points off his projection.
- −3.5ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
- −3.2ptsrecent workHis work has dropped off in his last few games.
- −0.7ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionSampson: 6.3 (best)Barkley: 6.0
TD pointsof the projectionSampson: 0.9Barkley: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekSampson: 0.15Barkley: Our estimate
Projected team pointsSampson: 18.0 (best)Barkley: 17.0
Goal line carriesper gameSampson: 0.0Barkley: 0.4 (best)
Red zone carriesper gameSampson: 0.0Barkley: 1.6 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameSampson: 0.0Barkley: 0.0
Role
Snap shareSampson: 23%Barkley: 36% (best)
Usage worthptsSampson: 3.5Barkley: 7.6 (best)
Touch shareSampson: 10%Barkley: 22% (best)
Target shareSampson: 5%Barkley: 7% (best)
Touches / gameSampson: 4.5Barkley: 9.8 (best)
Targets / gameSampson: 1.5Barkley: 1.8 (best)
Vacated touches this weekSampson: 4.2Barkley: 29.6 (best)
High value touches / gameSampson: 1.5Barkley: 2.0 (best)
Goal line carry shareSampson: 0%Barkley: 29% (best)
Red zone touches / gameSampson: 0.0Barkley: 1.6 (best)
Rush success rateSampson: 67% (best)Barkley: 42%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Sampson: 0%Barkley: 4.7% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredSampson: Earned by usage 3.5Scored 5.3Barkley: Earned by usage 7.6Scored 7.6
Rush yards / gameSampson: 22.5Barkley: 48.8 (best)
Points from rushingSampson: 42%Barkley: 80%
WOPRSampson: 0.05Barkley: 0.09 (best)
RZ target shareSampson: 0%Barkley: 0%
Inside 10 target shareSampson: 0%Barkley: 0%
Catch rateSampson: 3 targetsBarkley: 67%
Rushing points / gameSampson: 2.2 pts / gameBarkley: 6.1 pts / game (best)
Rushing floorSampson: 2.2 pts / gameBarkley: 3.3 pts / game (best)
Range
FloorSampson: 4.1 (best)Barkley: 0.0
CeilingSampson: 10.2 (best)Barkley: 8.8
Points from TDssteadier when lowerSampson: 0%Barkley: 16%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Sampson: 0%Barkley: 10% (best)
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterSampson: 34%Barkley: 14% (best)
SteadinessSampson: Steady±5.2 ptsBarkley: Steady (best)±6.7 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionSampson: D2026, 7 gmBarkley: C (best)2026, 6 gm
Game scriptSampson: Expected to trail (best)Barkley: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterSampson: 1.6Barkley: 1.3 (best)
Defense funnelSampson: NeutralBarkley: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedSampson: 7th (tough)Barkley: 14th (average) (best)
Backfield roleSampson: BackupBarkley: Lead
Opp defender outSampson: Joseph-Day (DT)Barkley: Kinlaw (DT)
Roof / surfacegrassSampson: OpenBarkley: Open
Rest / scheduleSampson: NormalBarkley: Normal
Opp paceSampson: 13th (average)Barkley: 12th (average) (best)
Opp stuff rateSampson: 23%3rd (tough)Barkley: 18% (best)17th (average)
Opp yards per carry allowedSampson: 3.64th (tough)Barkley: 3.8 (best)8th (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedSampson: 13th (average)Barkley: 28th (soft) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameSampson: 0.01st (tough)Barkley: 0.2 (best)31st (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedSampson: 78% (best)15th (average)Barkley: 73%10th (tough)
Starting QBSampson: Watson (Active)Barkley: McKee (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgSampson: 2 gamesBarkley: 8.7
Last 5 avgSampson: 2 gamesBarkley: 7.6
vs seasonSampson: 0.0Barkley: +1.1 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carrySampson: 7.5 (best)Barkley: 5.7
Carries / gameSampson: 3.0Barkley: 8.6 (best)
Yards per route runSampson: 2.13 (best)Barkley: 0.65
Receiving aDOTSampson: 3 targetsBarkley: −0.6
Games since injurySampson: 1Barkley: 1
Crowd
Started in leaguesSampson: Not widely startedBarkley: 65%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterSampson: RB37 (best)Barkley: RB38
Yards linerushingSampson: 12.5Barkley: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.