Jones
RB · MIN @ DET
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Limited · Knee
Projected points12.6ptsUsage estimate
15.6 if he plays · 80% to play
Sampson
RB · CLE @ PIT
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETNo game status yet, practice Full
Projected points6.3pts
Start · check inactives
Bench
Aaron Jones or Dylan Sampson: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Aaron Jones. If he's inactive, start Dylan Sampson.
- Ahead by
- +9.3pts
- over Sampson if he plays
- Confidence
- Depends on inactives
- Aaron Jones may not play (about 80% to play)
- Started
- 43%
- of leagues
Jones's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
If Aaron Jones is inactive, start Dylan Sampson.
Risk
Aaron Jones was limited in practice (knee): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. If he sits, start Dylan Sampson. Dylan Sampson has played 1 game since missing time, so his recent numbers lean on his 2025 games. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
JonesStart · check inactivesRB · MIN @ DETUsually 14.0−1.4pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
Hurts him
- −3.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 3.0 points off his projection.
- −1.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- −1.0ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
SampsonIf he sitsRB · CLE @ PITUsually 9.6−3.3pts this week
Helps him
- +0.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 2.5 catches, above his usual 2.0.
Hurts him
- −1.4pts2 linesRushing yards 12.5 (usual 21.1) and receiving yards 16.5 (usual 21.2) both sit below his usual.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionJones: 12.6 (best)Sampson: 6.3
TD pointsof the projectionJones: Our estimateSampson: 0.9
Expected TDsthis weekJones: Our estimateSampson: 0.15
Projected team pointsJones: 21.3 (best)Sampson: 18.0
Goal line carriesper gameJones: 0.2 (best)Sampson: 0.0
Red zone carriesper gameJones: 1.8 (best)Sampson: 0.0
Red zone targetsper gameJones: 0.5 (best)Sampson: 0.0
Role
Snap shareJones: 65% (best)Sampson: 23%
Usage worthptsJones: 13.9 (best)Sampson: 3.5
Touch shareJones: 41% (best)Sampson: 10%
Target shareJones: 11% (best)Sampson: 5%
Touches / gameJones: 19.7 (best)Sampson: 4.5
Targets / gameJones: 3.2 (best)Sampson: 1.5
Vacated touches this weekJones: 0.0Sampson: 4.2 (best)
High value touches / gameJones: 2.7 (best)Sampson: 1.5
Goal line carry shareJones: 50% (best)Sampson: 0%
Red zone touches / gameJones: 2.3 (best)Sampson: 0.0
Rush success rateJones: 35%Sampson: 67% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Jones: 1.0% (best)Sampson: 0%
Usage worth vs scoredJones: Earned by usage 13.9Scored 12.3Sampson: Earned by usage 3.5Scored 5.3
Rush yards / gameJones: 72.7 (best)Sampson: 22.5
Points from rushingJones: 75%Sampson: 42%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsJones: BelowSampson: 0 RZ targets
WOPRJones: 0.17 (best)Sampson: 0.05
RZ target shareJones: 14% (best)Sampson: 0%
Inside 10 target shareJones: 0%Sampson: 0%
Catch rateJones: 68%Sampson: 3 targets
Rushing points / gameJones: 9.3 pts / game (best)Sampson: 2.2 pts / game
Rushing floorJones: 6.6 pts / game (best)Sampson: 2.2 pts / game
Range
FloorJones: 9.6 (best)Sampson: 4.1
CeilingJones: 18.7 (best)Sampson: 10.2
Points from TDssteadier when lowerJones: 16%Sampson: 0%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Jones: 0%Sampson: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterJones: 22% (best)Sampson: 34%
SteadinessJones: Very steady (best)±4.8 ptsSampson: Steady±5.2 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionJones: C (best)2026, 6 gmSampson: D2026, 7 gm
Game scriptJones: Expected to trailSampson: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterJones: 1.0 (best)Sampson: 1.6
Defense funnelJones: NeutralSampson: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedJones: 12th (average) (best)Sampson: 7th (tough)
Backfield roleJones: LeadSampson: Backup
Opp defender outJones: None listedSampson: Joseph-Day (DT)
Roof / surfaceJones: DometurfSampson: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleJones: NormalSampson: Normal
Opp paceJones: 4th (fast) (best)Sampson: 13th (average)
Opp stuff rateJones: 18% (best)16th (average)Sampson: 23%3rd (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowedJones: 4.1 (best)12th (average)Sampson: 3.64th (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedJones: 32nd (soft) (best)Sampson: 13th (average)
Opp deep targets allowed / game1st (tough)Jones: 0.0Sampson: 0.0
Opp catch rate allowedJones: 74%12th (average)Sampson: 78% (best)15th (average)
Starting QBJones: Murray (Active)Sampson: Watson (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgJones: 13.0Sampson: 2 games
Last 5 avgJones: 12.8Sampson: 2 games
vs seasonJones: +0.7 (Steady) (best)Sampson: 0.0
Yards per carryJones: 4.2Sampson: 7.5 (best)
Carries / gameJones: 17.5 (best)Sampson: 3.0
Yards per route runJones: 0.85Sampson: 2.13 (best)
Receiving aDOTJones: −0.3Sampson: 3 targets
Games since injuryJones: None recentlySampson: 1
Crowd
Started in leaguesJones: 43%Sampson: Not widely started
Nuvela position ranklower is betterJones: RB20 (best)Sampson: RB37
Yards linerushingJones: Our estimateSampson: 12.5
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.