Dotson
WR · ATL vs NO
Proj pts
6.3pts
market
Ayomanor
WR · TEN vs BAL
Proj pts
6.3pts
market
Elic Ayomanor or Jahan Dotson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Jahan Dotson over Elic Ayomanor; the two are level at 6.3. Jahan Dotson leads at 6.3. Elic Ayomanor is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share8% target share
- Thin volume2.4 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs WR
Cons
- Low team total15.5 team total
- Shaky floor3.0 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 5 avg: Dotson 2.7, Ayomanor 8.2.
Latest game on the card: Ayomanor 2.1 (PPR points).
Why Jahan Dotson
Start Jahan Dotson — projects 6.3, an even matchup vs NO.
Jahan Dotson projects 6.3 points on a 2.1–8.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 2.4. Net: start Jahan Dotson this week.
Working against Dotson: Low target share (8% target share), Thin volume (2.4 targets/g).
Where Dotson leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (22.5 vs 15.5); Boom rate (27% vs 19%).
Why Elic Ayomanor
Sit Elic Ayomanor — projects 6.3, a favorable matchup vs BAL.
Elic Ayomanor projects 6.3 points on a 3.0–8.9 range. The matchup grades as favorable against BAL. Usage: targets / game at 5.6. Net: bench Elic Ayomanor this week.
Working for Ayomanor: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs WR).
Working against Ayomanor: Low team total (15.5 team total), Shaky floor (3.0 floor).
Where Ayomanor leads the head-to-head: Floor (3.0 vs 2.1); Ceiling (8.9 vs 8.0); Target share (19% vs 8%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs C-); Last 3 avg (6.4 vs 2.7); Last 5 avg (8.2 vs 2.7); vs season (+1.7 vs -0.2); Consistency (44% vs 0%); Bust rate (25% vs 40%); Targets / game (5.6 vs 2.4); Snap share (81% vs 58%); Red zone targets (8 vs 5).
Recent form
Jahan Dotson's last 3 games: PPR points 2.1, 2.9, 3.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Elic Ayomanor's last 5 games: PPR points 13.7, 8, 8.1, 8.9, 2.1 (oldest to newest).
Dotson has already beaten Ayomanor's 6.3 projection in 0 of his 3; Ayomanor has beaten Dotson's 6.3 in 4 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Jahan Dotson (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.5, spread +2.5.
Elic Ayomanor (TEN) faces BAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 15.5, spread +11.5.
What flips it
Dotson and Ayomanor are level on projection (6.3). Ayomanor's ceiling (8.9) clears Dotson's projection, so a big game from Ayomanor flips it. Dotson's floor (2.1) sits under Ayomanor's projection, so a quiet game from Dotson flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)