Nailor
WR · LV vs KC
Proj pts
6.6pts
market
Ayomanor
WR · TEN vs BAL
Proj pts
6.3pts
market
Elic Ayomanor or Jalen Nailor: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Jalen Nailor over Elic Ayomanor by 0.3. Jalen Nailor leads at 6.6. Elic Ayomanor is the first one out, 0.3 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share12% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs WR
Cons
- Low team total15.5 team total
- Shaky floor3.0 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is consistency: Nailor 5%, Ayomanor 44%.
Latest game on the card: Nailor 2.6, Ayomanor 2.1 (PPR points).
Why Jalen Nailor
Start Jalen Nailor — projects 6.6, an even matchup vs KC.
Jalen Nailor projects 6.6 points on a 1.6–7.6 range. The matchup grades as neutral against KC. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: start Jalen Nailor this week.
Working against Nailor: Low target share (12% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Nailor leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.6 vs 6.3); Implied team total (21.5 vs 15.5); Red zone targets (13 vs 8).
Why Elic Ayomanor
Sit Elic Ayomanor — projects 6.3, a favorable matchup vs BAL.
Elic Ayomanor projects 6.3 points on a 3.0–8.9 range. The matchup grades as favorable against BAL. Usage: targets / game at 5.6. Net: bench Elic Ayomanor this week.
Working for Ayomanor: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs WR).
Working against Ayomanor: Low team total (15.5 team total), Shaky floor (3.0 floor).
Where Ayomanor leads the head-to-head: Floor (3.0 vs 1.6); Ceiling (8.9 vs 7.6); Target share (19% vs 12%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs C-); Last 3 avg (6.4 vs 3.4); Last 5 avg (8.2 vs 3.6); vs season (+1.7 vs -1.6); Consistency (44% vs 5%); Boom rate (19% vs 12%); Bust rate (25% vs 29%); Targets / game (5.6 vs 3.1); Snap share (81% vs 65%).
Recent form
Jalen Nailor's last 5 games: PPR points 0, 7.9, 5.7, 1.9, 2.6 (oldest to newest).
Elic Ayomanor's last 5 games: PPR points 13.7, 8, 8.1, 8.9, 2.1 (oldest to newest).
Nailor has already beaten Ayomanor's 6.3 projection in 1 of his 5; Ayomanor has beaten Nailor's 6.6 in 4 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Jalen Nailor (LV) faces KC, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +4.5.
Elic Ayomanor (TEN) faces BAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 15.5, spread +11.5.
What flips it
Nailor's edge is 0.3 points (6.6 to 6.3). Ayomanor's ceiling (8.9) clears Nailor's projection, so a big game from Ayomanor flips it. Nailor's floor (1.6) sits under Ayomanor's projection, so a quiet game from Nailor flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)