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Scoring
#1 Start

Ayomanor

WR · TEN vs BAL

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

6.3pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Coleman

WR · BUF vs NE

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

6pts

market

Lower Conf

Elic Ayomanor or Keon Coleman: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Elic Ayomanor over Keon Coleman by 0.3. Elic Ayomanor leads at 6.3. Keon Coleman is the first one out, 0.2 short.

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Availability & news

  • Keon ColemanPractice: DNP

    Coleman (ankle) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)

Highlights

Elic AyomanorStart
WR · TEN vs BAL

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs WR

Cons

  • Low team total15.5 team total
  • Shaky floor3.0 floor
Keon ColemanBench
WR · BUF vs NE

Pros

  • High-scoring spot27.8 team total

Cons

  • Thin volume4.9 targets/g
  • Rotational snaps66% of snaps

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

AyomanorStart
ColemanBench
Projection6.36.0
Floor3.04.1
Ceiling8.911.6
Target share19%17%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)A+C
Implied team total15.527.8

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is implied team total: Ayomanor 15.5, Coleman 27.8.

Coleman (Practice: DNP): “Coleman (ankle) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Ayomanor 2.1, Coleman 4.7 (PPR points).

Why Elic Ayomanor

Start Elic Ayomanor — projects 6.3, a favorable matchup vs BAL.

Elic Ayomanor projects 6.3 points on a 3.0–8.9 range. The matchup grades as favorable against BAL. Usage: targets / game at 5.6. Net: start Elic Ayomanor this week.

Working for Ayomanor: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs WR).

Working against Ayomanor: Low team total (15.5 team total), Shaky floor (3.0 floor).

Where Ayomanor leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.3 vs 6.0); Target share (19% vs 17%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs C); Last 3 avg (6.4 vs 6.0); Last 5 avg (8.2 vs 6.8); vs season (+1.7 vs -0.2); Consistency (44% vs 33%); Boom rate (19% vs 17%); Targets / game (5.6 vs 4.9); Snap share (81% vs 66%).

Why Keon Coleman

Sit Keon Coleman — projects 6.0, an even matchup vs NE, but the role is cooling.

Keon Coleman projects 6.0 points on a 4.1–11.6 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NE. Usage: targets / game at 4.9. Net: bench Keon Coleman this week.

Working for Coleman: High-scoring spot (27.8 team total).

Working against Coleman: Thin volume (4.9 targets/g), Rotational snaps (66% of snaps).

Where Coleman leads the head-to-head: Floor (4.1 vs 3.0); Ceiling (11.6 vs 8.9); Implied team total (27.8 vs 15.5); Red zone targets (14 vs 8).

Recent form

Elic Ayomanor's last 5 games: PPR points 13.7, 8, 8.1, 8.9, 2.1 (oldest to newest).

Keon Coleman's last 4 games: PPR points 8.9, 1.1, 12.3, 4.7 (oldest to newest).

Ayomanor has already beaten Coleman's 6 projection in 4 of his 5; Coleman has beaten Ayomanor's 6.3 in 2 of his 4.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Elic Ayomanor (TEN) faces BAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 15.5, spread +11.5.

Keon Coleman (BUF) faces NE, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 27.8, spread -7.0.

What flips it

Ayomanor's edge is 0.3 points (6.3 to 6). Coleman's ceiling (11.6) clears Ayomanor's projection, so a big game from Coleman flips it. Ayomanor's floor (3) sits under Coleman's projection, so a quiet game from Ayomanor flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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