nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Thornton

WR · KC vs LV

Sun 4:25 PM

Proj pts

6.7pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Ayomanor

WR · TEN vs BAL

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

6.3pts

market

Lower Conf

Elic Ayomanor or Tyquan Thornton: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Tyquan Thornton over Elic Ayomanor by 0.4. Tyquan Thornton leads at 6.7. Elic Ayomanor is the first one out, 0.4 short.

Was this pick helpful?

Highlights

Tyquan ThorntonStart
WR · KC vs LV

Cons

  • Low target share9% target share
  • Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Elic AyomanorBench
WR · TEN vs BAL

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs WR

Cons

  • Low team total15.5 team total
  • Shaky floor3.0 floor

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

ThorntonStart
AyomanorBench
Projection6.76.3
Floor1.93.0
Ceiling8.28.9
Target share9%19%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)BA+
Implied team total26.015.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is target share: Thornton 9%, Ayomanor 19%.

Latest game on the card: Ayomanor 2.1 (PPR points).

Why Tyquan Thornton

Start Tyquan Thornton — projects 6.7, an even matchup vs LV, with a rising role.

Tyquan Thornton projects 6.7 points on a 1.9–8.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LV. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: start Tyquan Thornton this week.

Working against Thornton: Low target share (9% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).

Where Thornton leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.7 vs 6.3); Implied team total (26.0 vs 15.5); Boom rate (22% vs 19%); Bust rate (22% vs 25%).

Why Elic Ayomanor

Sit Elic Ayomanor — projects 6.3, a favorable matchup vs BAL.

Elic Ayomanor projects 6.3 points on a 3.0–8.9 range. The matchup grades as favorable against BAL. Usage: targets / game at 5.6. Net: bench Elic Ayomanor this week.

Working for Ayomanor: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs WR).

Working against Ayomanor: Low team total (15.5 team total), Shaky floor (3.0 floor).

Where Ayomanor leads the head-to-head: Floor (3.0 vs 1.9); Ceiling (8.9 vs 8.2); Target share (19% vs 9%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs B); Last 3 avg (6.4 vs 5.6); Last 5 avg (8.2 vs 5.6); vs season (+1.7 vs +0.8); Consistency (44% vs 36%); Targets / game (5.6 vs 3.1); Snap share (81% vs 43%); Red zone targets (8 vs 4).

Recent form

Tyquan Thornton's last 3 games: PPR points 0, 4.2, 12.6 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).

Elic Ayomanor's last 5 games: PPR points 13.7, 8, 8.1, 8.9, 2.1 (oldest to newest).

Thornton has already beaten Ayomanor's 6.3 projection in 1 of his 3; Ayomanor has beaten Thornton's 6.7 in 4 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Tyquan Thornton (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.

Elic Ayomanor (TEN) faces BAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 15.5, spread +11.5.

What flips it

Thornton's edge is 0.4 points (6.7 to 6.3). Ayomanor's ceiling (8.9) clears Thornton's projection, so a big game from Ayomanor flips it. Thornton's floor (1.9) sits under Ayomanor's projection, so a quiet game from Thornton flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

This week's toughest calls