Herbert
QB · LAC @ LA
Kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET
Projected points15.7pts
Smith
QB · NYJ vs LV
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points15.2pts
Toss-up
Bench
Geno Smith or Justin Herbert: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Justin Herbert gets the nod over Geno Smith.
- Ahead by
- +0.5pts
- over Smith
- Confidence
- Lower
- Toss-up
Case for Smith
The case for Smith is an offense expected to score more (23.5 points to 19.3) and fewer interceptions (1.0% of his throws to 4.4%).
Flips if
Start Geno Smith instead if you want fewer interceptions (1.0% of his throws to 4.4%).
Risk
The risk: Herbert has been held under 12 points in 3 straight games.
Highlights
HerbertToss-upQB · LAC @ LAUsually 10.4+5.3pts this week
Helps him
- +2.7ptspass TDsHis lines put him at 1.50 passing TDs, above his usual 0.83.
- +1.0ptsrush TDsHis lines put him at 0.17 rushing TDs, above his usual 0.00.
- +0.7ptspass yardsHis lines put him at 206.5 passing yards, above his usual 190.2.
- 25.2ceilingHis best weeks reach about 25.2 points.
Hurts him
- −0.5ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 23.5 rushing yards, below his usual 28.0.
- 19.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 19.3 points.
- 11.3floorA quiet week could drop to about 11.3 points.
SmithFirst outQB · NYJ vs LVUsually 15.0+0.2pts this week
Helps him
- +0.7ptsrush TDsHis lines put him at 0.11 rushing TDs, above his usual 0.00.
- LVvs QBsEdgeLV is the 10th softest defense for quarterbacks.
Hurts him
- −0.5ptspass yardsHis lines put him at 220.5 passing yards, below his usual 231.9.
- 28%pressureEdgeThe LV pass rush gets pressure on 28% of dropbacks.
- 10.7floorA quiet week could drop to about 10.7 points.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionHerbert: 15.7 (best)Smith: 15.2
Rush TD pointsof the projectionHerbert: 1.0 (best)Smith: 0.7
Rush TDs expectedthis weekHerbert: 0.17 (best)Smith: 0.11
Projected team pointsHerbert: 19.3Smith: 23.5 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameHerbert: 0.3 (best)Smith: 0.0
Red zone carriesper gameHerbert: 0.8 (best)Smith: 0.1
Pass attempts / gameHerbert: 30.0 (best)Smith: 29.6
Role
Snap shareHerbert: 100%Smith: 100%
Touch shareHerbert: 11% (best)Smith: 7%
Touches / gameHerbert: 4.8 (best)Smith: 3.1
Yards per attemptHerbert: 6.3Smith: 7.8 (best)
Pass TD rateHerbert: 3%Smith: 5% (best)
Rush yards / gameHerbert: 28.0 (best)Smith: 6.0
Points from rushingHerbert: 27%Smith: 4%
Rushing points / gameHerbert: 2.8 pts / game (best)Smith: 0.6 pts / game
Rushing floorHerbert: 2.7 pts / game (best)Smith: 0.5 pts / game
Designed runs / gameHerbert: 1.7 (best)Smith: 0.7
Scrambles / gameHerbert: 3.2 (best)Smith: 1.4
Dropbacks / gameHerbert: 36.5 (best)Smith: 34.3
Designed runs inside the 10 / gameHerbert: 0.3 (best)Smith: 0.0
Sacks per dropbackHerbert: 10%Smith: 9% (best)
INT rateHerbert: 4.4%Smith: 1.0% (best)
Pass aDOTHerbert: 7.8Smith: 6.7
High value touches / gameHerbert: 0.7 (best)Smith: 0.0
Goal line carry shareHerbert: 33% (best)Smith: 0%
Red zone touches / gameHerbert: 1.0 (best)Smith: 0.1
Rush success rateHerbert: 45%Smith: 53% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Herbert: 6.9% (best)Smith: 0%
Range
FloorHerbert: 11.3 (best)Smith: 10.7
CeilingHerbert: 25.2 (best)Smith: 22.1
Points from TDssteadier when lowerHerbert: 0%Smith: 0%
Big weeks (25+ pts)Herbert: 16% (best)Smith: 14%
Dud weeks (under 12 pts)lower is betterHerbert: 48% (best)Smith: 57%
SteadinessHerbert: Steady±7.4 ptsSmith: Very steady (best)±7.1 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmHerbert: CSmith: B (best)
Game scriptHerbert: Expected to trailSmith: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterHerbert: 0.9 (best)Smith: 1.7
Defense funnelHerbert: NeutralSmith: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedHerbert: 4th (tough)Smith: 22nd (soft) (best)
Opp sacks / gameHerbert: 1.4 (best)Smith: 2.3
Opp defender outHerbert: Garrett (LB)Smith: None listed
Roof / surfaceturfHerbert: DomeSmith: Open
Rest / scheduleHerbert: Off a byeSmith: Normal
Opp paceHerbert: 3rd (fast) (best)Smith: 9th (fast)
Opp pressure rateHerbert: 17% (best)29th (soft)Smith: 28%6th (tough)
Pressure facedHerbert: 25% (best)Smith: 31%
Opp rush yds allowedHerbert: 18th (average)Smith: 30th (soft) (best)
Opp stuff rateHerbert: 18%12th (average)Smith: 14% (best)30th (soft)
Opp yards per carry allowedHerbert: 4.213th (average)Smith: 5.3 (best)31st (soft)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameHerbert: 2.97th (tough)Smith: 5.1 (best)30th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedHerbert: 60%2nd (tough)Smith: 70% (best)23rd (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgHerbert: 9.5Smith: 15.1 (best)
Last 5 avgHerbert: 9.8Smith: 16.0 (best)
vs seasonHerbert: −0.9 (Cooling)Smith: +0.1 (Steady) (best)
Yards per carryHerbert: 5.8 (best)Smith: 1.9
Carries / gameHerbert: 4.8 (best)Smith: 3.1
Pass volume trendHerbert: SteadySmith: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesHerbert: Not widely startedSmith: 38%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterHerbert: QB17 (best)Smith: QB18
Yards linepassingHerbert: 206.5Smith: 220.5 (best)
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.