Hockenson
TE · MIN vs MIA
Proj pts
13.8pts
market
Fannin
TE · CLE vs PIT
Final pts
11.7pts
13.2 proj · −1.5
Harold Fannin Jr. or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean T.J. Hockenson over Harold Fannin Jr by 0.6. T.J. Hockenson leads at 13.8. Harold Fannin Jr. is the first one out, 0.7 short.
Crowd: 76% of managers started Fannin.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
- Spike upside18.9 ceiling
Pros
- Alpha TE usage22% target share
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs TE
- High floor9.2 floor
Cons
- Low team total18.0 team total
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 5 avg: Hockenson 6.9, Fannin 13.9.
Latest game on the card: Hockenson 3.1, Fannin 24.1 (PPR points).
Why T.J. Hockenson
Start T.J. Hockenson — projects 13.8, a favorable matchup vs MIA.
T.J. Hockenson projects 13.8 points on a 5.1–18.9 range. The matchup grades as favorable against MIA. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: start T.J. Hockenson this week.
Working for Hockenson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE), Spike upside (18.9 ceiling).
Where Hockenson leads the head-to-head: Projection (13.8 vs 13.2); Implied team total (24.5 vs 18.0); Snap share (78% vs 76%).
Why Harold Fannin Jr.
Sit Harold Fannin Jr. — projects 13.2, a favorable matchup vs PIT.
Harold Fannin Jr. projects 13.2 points on a 9.2–23.3 range. The matchup grades as favorable against PIT. Usage: targets / game at 6.7. Net: bench Harold Fannin Jr. this week.
Working for Fannin: Alpha TE usage (22% target share), Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs TE), High floor (9.2 floor).
Working against Fannin: Low team total (18.0 team total).
Where Fannin leads the head-to-head: Floor (9.2 vs 5.1); Ceiling (23.3 vs 18.9); Target share (22% vs 16%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs A); Last 3 avg (12.9 vs 7.5); Last 5 avg (13.9 vs 6.9); vs season (+0.8 vs -0.2); Consistency (51% vs 48%); Boom rate (20% vs 13%); Targets / game (6.7 vs 4.4); Touchdown dependence (19% vs 16%).
Recent form
T.J. Hockenson's last 5 games: PPR points 10.6, 1.2, 13.6, 5.9, 3.1 (oldest to newest).
Harold Fannin Jr.'s last 5 games: PPR points 20, 11, 4.1, 10.4, 24.1 (oldest to newest).
Hockenson has already beaten Fannin's 13.2 projection in 1 of his 5; Fannin has beaten Hockenson's 13.8 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) faces MIA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread -10.5.
Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) played PIT (final: CLE 27 – 24 PIT). The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 18.0, spread +2.5.
What flips it
Hockenson's edge is 0.6 points (13.8 to 13.2). Fannin's ceiling (23.3) clears Hockenson's projection, so a big game from Fannin flips it. Hockenson's floor (5.1) sits under Fannin's projection, so a quiet game from Hockenson flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Harold Fannin Jr. comparisons
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Mark Andrews13.2 · 12.9
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Kenyon Sadiq13.2 · 13.5
- Dalton Schultz or Harold Fannin Jr.13.6 · 13.2
More T.J. Hockenson comparisons
- Dalton Schultz or T.J. Hockenson13.6 · 13.8
- Kenyon Sadiq or T.J. Hockenson13.5 · 13.8
- Sam LaPorta or T.J. Hockenson14.9 · 13.8
- T.J. Hockenson or Travis Kelce13.8 · 15.1
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.4 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)