Nailor
WR · LV vs KC
Proj pts
6.6pts
market
Dotson
WR · ATL vs NO
Proj pts
6.3pts
market
Jahan Dotson or Jalen Nailor: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Jalen Nailor over Jahan Dotson by 0.3. Jalen Nailor leads at 6.6. Jahan Dotson is the first one out, 0.3 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share12% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Cons
- Low target share8% target share
- Thin volume2.4 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Nailor 13, Dotson 5.
Latest game on the card: Nailor 2.6 (PPR points).
Why Jalen Nailor
Start Jalen Nailor — projects 6.6, an even matchup vs KC.
Jalen Nailor projects 6.6 points on a 1.6–7.6 range. The matchup grades as neutral against KC. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: start Jalen Nailor this week.
Working against Nailor: Low target share (12% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Nailor leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.6 vs 6.3); Target share (12% vs 8%); Last 3 avg (3.4 vs 2.7); Last 5 avg (3.6 vs 2.7); Consistency (5% vs 0%); Bust rate (29% vs 40%); Targets / game (3.1 vs 2.4); Snap share (65% vs 58%); Red zone targets (13 vs 5).
Why Jahan Dotson
Sit Jahan Dotson — projects 6.3, an even matchup vs NO.
Jahan Dotson projects 6.3 points on a 2.1–8.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 2.4. Net: bench Jahan Dotson this week.
Working against Dotson: Low target share (8% target share), Thin volume (2.4 targets/g).
Where Dotson leads the head-to-head: Floor (2.1 vs 1.6); Ceiling (8.0 vs 7.6); Implied team total (22.5 vs 21.5); vs season (-0.2 vs -1.6); Boom rate (27% vs 12%).
Recent form
Jalen Nailor's last 5 games: PPR points 0, 7.9, 5.7, 1.9, 2.6 (oldest to newest).
Jahan Dotson's last 3 games: PPR points 2.1, 2.9, 3.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Nailor has already beaten Dotson's 6.3 projection in 1 of his 5; Dotson has beaten Nailor's 6.6 in 0 of his 3.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Jalen Nailor (LV) faces KC, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +4.5.
Jahan Dotson (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.5, spread +2.5.
What flips it
Nailor's edge is 0.3 points (6.6 to 6.3). Dotson's ceiling (8) clears Nailor's projection, so a big game from Dotson flips it. Nailor's floor (1.6) sits under Dotson's projection, so a quiet game from Nailor flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)