nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Hurst

WR · TB vs GB

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

6.8pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Dotson

WR · ATL vs NO

Mon 8:15 PM

Proj pts

6.3pts

market

Lower Conf

Jahan Dotson or Ted Hurst III: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Ted Hurst III over Jahan Dotson by 0.5. Ted Hurst III leads at 6.8. Jahan Dotson is the first one out, 0.5 short.

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Highlights

Ted Hurst IIIStart
WR · TB vs GB

Cons

  • Low target share14% target share
  • Thin volume4.3 targets/g
Jahan DotsonBench
WR · ATL vs NO

Cons

  • Low target share8% target share
  • Thin volume2.4 targets/g

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

HurstStart
DotsonBench
Projection6.86.3
Floor—2.1
Ceiling—8.0
Target share14%8%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)C+C-
Implied team total17.522.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Hurst 7.4, Dotson 2.7.

Why Ted Hurst III

Start Ted Hurst III — projects 6.8, an even matchup vs GB.

Ted Hurst III projects 6.8 points. The matchup grades as neutral against GB. Usage: targets / game at 4.3. Net: start Ted Hurst III this week.

Working against Hurst: Low target share (14% target share), Thin volume (4.3 targets/g).

Where Hurst leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.8 vs 6.3); Target share (14% vs 8%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (C+ vs C-); Last 3 avg (7.4 vs 2.7); Last 5 avg (7.4 vs 2.7); vs season (+0.0 vs -0.2); Consistency (64% vs 0%); Bust rate (0% vs 40%); Targets / game (4.3 vs 2.4); Snap share (75% vs 58%).

Why Jahan Dotson

Sit Jahan Dotson — projects 6.3, an even matchup vs NO.

Jahan Dotson projects 6.3 points on a 2.1–8.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 2.4. Net: bench Jahan Dotson this week.

Working against Dotson: Low target share (8% target share), Thin volume (2.4 targets/g).

Where Dotson leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (22.5 vs 17.5); Boom rate (27% vs 0%); Red zone targets (5 vs 2).

Recent form

Ted Hurst III's last 3 games: PPR points 4.7, 6.6, 11 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).

Jahan Dotson's last 3 games: PPR points 2.1, 2.9, 3.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).

Hurst's worst of these 3 (4.7) beats Dotson's best (3.1).

Hurst has already beaten Dotson's 6.3 projection in 2 of his 3; Dotson has beaten Hurst's 6.8 in 0 of his 3.

Matchup

Ted Hurst III (TB) faces GB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 17.5, spread +3.5.

Jahan Dotson (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.5, spread +2.5.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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