Thornton
WR · KC vs LV
Proj pts
6.7pts
market
Dotson
WR · ATL vs NO
Proj pts
6.3pts
market
Jahan Dotson or Tyquan Thornton: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Tyquan Thornton over Jahan Dotson by 0.4. Tyquan Thornton leads at 6.7. Jahan Dotson is the first one out, 0.3 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share9% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Cons
- Low target share8% target share
- Thin volume2.4 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Thornton 5.6, Dotson 2.7.
Why Tyquan Thornton
Start Tyquan Thornton — projects 6.7, an even matchup vs LV, with a rising role.
Tyquan Thornton projects 6.7 points on a 1.9–8.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LV. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: start Tyquan Thornton this week.
Working against Thornton: Low target share (9% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Thornton leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.7 vs 6.3); Ceiling (8.2 vs 8.0); Target share (9% vs 8%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs C-); Implied team total (26.0 vs 22.5); Last 3 avg (5.6 vs 2.7); Last 5 avg (5.6 vs 2.7); vs season (+0.8 vs -0.2); Consistency (36% vs 0%); Bust rate (22% vs 40%); Targets / game (3.1 vs 2.4).
Why Jahan Dotson
Sit Jahan Dotson — projects 6.3, an even matchup vs NO.
Jahan Dotson projects 6.3 points on a 2.1–8.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 2.4. Net: bench Jahan Dotson this week.
Working against Dotson: Low target share (8% target share), Thin volume (2.4 targets/g).
Where Dotson leads the head-to-head: Floor (2.1 vs 1.9); Boom rate (27% vs 22%); Snap share (58% vs 43%); Red zone targets (5 vs 4).
Recent form
Tyquan Thornton's last 3 games: PPR points 0, 4.2, 12.6 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Jahan Dotson's last 3 games: PPR points 2.1, 2.9, 3.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Thornton has already beaten Dotson's 6.3 projection in 1 of his 3; Dotson has beaten Thornton's 6.7 in 0 of his 3.
Matchup
Tyquan Thornton (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.
Jahan Dotson (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.5, spread +2.5.
What flips it
Thornton's edge is 0.4 points (6.7 to 6.3). Dotson's ceiling (8) clears Thornton's projection, so a big game from Dotson flips it. Thornton's floor (1.9) sits under Dotson's projection, so a quiet game from Thornton flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)