nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Hurst

WR · TB vs GB

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

6.8pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Nailor

WR · LV vs KC

Sun 4:25 PM

Proj pts

6.6pts

market

Lower Conf

Jalen Nailor or Ted Hurst III: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Ted Hurst III over Jalen Nailor by 0.2. Ted Hurst III leads at 6.8. Jalen Nailor is the first one out, 0.2 short.

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Highlights

Ted Hurst IIIStart
WR · TB vs GB

Cons

  • Low target share14% target share
  • Thin volume4.3 targets/g
Jalen NailorBench
WR · LV vs KC

Cons

  • Low target share12% target share
  • Thin volume3.1 targets/g

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

HurstStart
NailorBench
Projection6.86.6
Floor—1.6
Ceiling—7.6
Target share14%12%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)C+C-
Implied team total17.521.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is consistency: Hurst 64%, Nailor 5%.

Latest game on the card: Nailor 2.6 (PPR points).

Why Ted Hurst III

Start Ted Hurst III — projects 6.8, an even matchup vs GB.

Ted Hurst III projects 6.8 points. The matchup grades as neutral against GB. Usage: targets / game at 4.3. Net: start Ted Hurst III this week.

Working against Hurst: Low target share (14% target share), Thin volume (4.3 targets/g).

Where Hurst leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.8 vs 6.6); Target share (14% vs 12%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (C+ vs C-); Last 3 avg (7.4 vs 3.4); Last 5 avg (7.4 vs 3.6); vs season (+0.0 vs -1.6); Consistency (64% vs 5%); Bust rate (0% vs 29%); Targets / game (4.3 vs 3.1); Snap share (75% vs 65%).

Why Jalen Nailor

Sit Jalen Nailor — projects 6.6, an even matchup vs KC.

Jalen Nailor projects 6.6 points on a 1.6–7.6 range. The matchup grades as neutral against KC. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: bench Jalen Nailor this week.

Working against Nailor: Low target share (12% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).

Where Nailor leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (21.5 vs 17.5); Boom rate (12% vs 0%); Red zone targets (13 vs 2).

Recent form

Ted Hurst III's last 3 games: PPR points 4.7, 6.6, 11 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).

Jalen Nailor's last 5 games: PPR points 0, 7.9, 5.7, 1.9, 2.6 (oldest to newest).

Hurst has already beaten Nailor's 6.6 projection in 1 of his 3; Nailor has beaten Hurst's 6.8 in 1 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Ted Hurst III (TB) faces GB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 17.5, spread +3.5.

Jalen Nailor (LV) faces KC, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +4.5.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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