Thornton
WR · KC vs LV
Proj pts
6.7pts
market
Nailor
WR · LV vs KC
Proj pts
6.6pts
market
Jalen Nailor or Tyquan Thornton: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Tyquan Thornton over Jalen Nailor by 0.1. Tyquan Thornton leads at 6.7. Jalen Nailor is the first one out, 0.0 short.
Thornton and Nailor are effectively tied on projection — Thornton gets the start on the tie-break.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share9% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Cons
- Low target share12% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is consistency: Thornton 36%, Nailor 5%.
Latest game on the card: Nailor 2.6 (PPR points).
Why Tyquan Thornton
Start Tyquan Thornton — projects 6.7, an even matchup vs LV, with a rising role.
Tyquan Thornton projects 6.7 points on a 1.9–8.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LV. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: start Tyquan Thornton this week.
Working against Thornton: Low target share (9% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Thornton leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.7 vs 6.6); Floor (1.9 vs 1.6); Ceiling (8.2 vs 7.6); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs C-); Implied team total (26.0 vs 21.5); Last 3 avg (5.6 vs 3.4); Last 5 avg (5.6 vs 3.6); vs season (+0.8 vs -1.6); Consistency (36% vs 5%); Boom rate (22% vs 12%); Bust rate (22% vs 29%).
Why Jalen Nailor
Sit Jalen Nailor — projects 6.6, an even matchup vs KC.
Jalen Nailor projects 6.6 points on a 1.6–7.6 range. The matchup grades as neutral against KC. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: bench Jalen Nailor this week.
Working against Nailor: Low target share (12% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Nailor leads the head-to-head: Target share (12% vs 9%); Snap share (65% vs 43%); Red zone targets (13 vs 4).
Recent form
Tyquan Thornton's last 3 games: PPR points 0, 4.2, 12.6 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Jalen Nailor's last 5 games: PPR points 0, 7.9, 5.7, 1.9, 2.6 (oldest to newest).
Thornton has already beaten Nailor's 6.6 projection in 1 of his 3; Nailor has beaten Thornton's 6.7 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Tyquan Thornton (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.
Jalen Nailor (LV) faces KC, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +4.5.
What flips it
Thornton's edge is 0.1 points (6.7 to 6.6). Nailor's ceiling (7.6) clears Thornton's projection, so a big game from Nailor flips it. Thornton's floor (1.9) sits under Nailor's projection, so a quiet game from Thornton flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)