Reed
WR · GB vs TB
Proj pts
7pts
opportunity
Hurst
WR · TB vs GB
Proj pts
6.8pts
market
Jayden Reed or Ted Hurst III: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Jayden Reed over Ted Hurst III by 0.2. Jayden Reed leads at 7.0. Ted Hurst III is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Availability & news
Jayden ReedIr
The Packers officially placed Reed (neck) on injured reserve Wednesday.(rotowire, Sep 30, 2026)
Highlights
Pros
- Reliable77% consistency
Cons
- Thin volume4.4 targets/g
- Rotational snaps53% of snaps
Cons
- Low target share14% target share
- Thin volume4.3 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Reed 6, Hurst 2.
Reed (Ir): “The Packers officially placed Reed (neck) on injured reserve Wednesday.” — RotoWire, Sep 30, 2026.
Why Jayden Reed
Start Jayden Reed — projects 7.0, an even matchup vs TB, but the role is cooling.
Jayden Reed projects 7.0 points on a 6.7–10.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against TB. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: start Jayden Reed this week.
Working for Reed: Reliable (77% consistency).
Working against Reed: Thin volume (4.4 targets/g), Rotational snaps (53% of snaps).
Where Reed leads the head-to-head: Projection (7.0 vs 6.8); Target share (17% vs 14%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs C+); Implied team total (21.0 vs 17.5); Consistency (77% vs 64%); Targets / game (4.4 vs 4.3); Red zone targets (6 vs 2).
Why Ted Hurst III
Sit Ted Hurst III — projects 6.8, an even matchup vs GB.
Ted Hurst III projects 6.8 points. The matchup grades as neutral against GB. Usage: targets / game at 4.3. Net: bench Ted Hurst III this week.
Working against Hurst: Low target share (14% target share), Thin volume (4.3 targets/g).
Where Hurst leads the head-to-head: Last 3 avg (7.4 vs 3.2); Last 5 avg (7.4 vs 4.8); vs season (+0.0 vs -2.7); Snap share (75% vs 53%).
Recent form
Jayden Reed's last 3 games: PPR points 1.4, 5, 8.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Ted Hurst III's last 3 games: PPR points 4.7, 6.6, 11 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Reed has already beaten Hurst's 6.8 projection in 1 of his 3; Hurst has beaten Reed's 7 in 1 of his 3.
Matchup
Jayden Reed (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.0, spread -3.5.
Ted Hurst III (TB) faces GB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 17.5, spread +3.5.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)