Reed
WR · GB vs TB
Proj pts
7pts
opportunity
Thornton
WR · KC vs LV
Proj pts
6.7pts
market
Jayden Reed or Tyquan Thornton: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Jayden Reed over Tyquan Thornton by 0.3. Jayden Reed leads at 7.0. Tyquan Thornton is the first one out, 0.3 short.
Availability & news
Jayden ReedIr
The Packers officially placed Reed (neck) on injured reserve Wednesday.(rotowire, Sep 30, 2026)
Highlights
Pros
- Reliable77% consistency
Cons
- Thin volume4.4 targets/g
- Rotational snaps53% of snaps
Cons
- Low target share9% target share
- Thin volume3.1 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is consistency: Reed 77%, Thornton 36%.
Reed (Ir): “The Packers officially placed Reed (neck) on injured reserve Wednesday.” — RotoWire, Sep 30, 2026.
Why Jayden Reed
Start Jayden Reed — projects 7.0, an even matchup vs TB, but the role is cooling.
Jayden Reed projects 7.0 points on a 6.7–10.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against TB. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: start Jayden Reed this week.
Working for Reed: Reliable (77% consistency).
Working against Reed: Thin volume (4.4 targets/g), Rotational snaps (53% of snaps).
Where Reed leads the head-to-head: Projection (7.0 vs 6.7); Floor (6.7 vs 1.9); Ceiling (10.8 vs 8.2); Target share (17% vs 9%); Consistency (77% vs 36%); Bust rate (0% vs 22%); Targets / game (4.4 vs 3.1); Snap share (53% vs 43%); Red zone targets (6 vs 4).
Why Tyquan Thornton
Sit Tyquan Thornton — projects 6.7, an even matchup vs LV, with a rising role.
Tyquan Thornton projects 6.7 points on a 1.9–8.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LV. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: bench Tyquan Thornton this week.
Working against Thornton: Low target share (9% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).
Where Thornton leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs B-); Implied team total (26.0 vs 21.0); Last 3 avg (5.6 vs 3.2); Last 5 avg (5.6 vs 4.8); vs season (+0.8 vs -2.7); Boom rate (22% vs 0%).
Recent form
Jayden Reed's last 3 games: PPR points 1.4, 5, 8.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Tyquan Thornton's last 3 games: PPR points 0, 4.2, 12.6 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Reed has already beaten Thornton's 6.7 projection in 1 of his 3; Thornton has beaten Reed's 7 in 1 of his 3.
Matchup
Jayden Reed (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.0, spread -3.5.
Tyquan Thornton (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.
What flips it
Reed's edge is 0.3 points (7 to 6.7). Thornton's ceiling (8.2) clears Reed's projection, so a big game from Thornton flips it. Confidence in the call: high.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)