Burden
WR · CHI @ SEA
Kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET
Projected points12.1pts
Downs
WR · IND @ JAX
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points10.3ptsUsage estimate
Toss-up
Bench
Josh Downs or Luther Burden III: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Luther Burden III gets the nod over Josh Downs.
- Ahead by
- +1.8pts
- over Downs
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 84%
- of leagues
Downs's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
Start Josh Downs instead if you want the easier matchup (the 4th softest defense for receivers, while Burden faces the 2nd toughest defense for receivers).
Risk
The risk: Burden faces the Seahawks, the 2nd toughest defense for receivers.
Highlights
BurdenToss-upWR · CHI @ SEAUsually 13.9−1.8pts this week
Helps him
- 23.7last weekHe caught 4 for 130 yards and a touchdown last week (23.7 points).
Hurts him
- −1.9ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 51.0 receiving yards, below his usual 70.1.
- −0.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 4.5 catches, below his usual 5.0.
- SEAvs WRsEdgeSEA is the 2nd toughest defense for receivers.
- 61%snapsHe plays only 61% of snaps, so his work comes in rotation.
DownsFirst outWR · IND @ JAXUsually 8.2+2.1pts this week
Helps him
- +1.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- +1.2ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.
- JAXvs WRsEdgeJAX is the 4th softest defense for receivers.
Hurts him
- −0.5ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- 18.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 18.3 points.
- 43%dud weeks43% of his games have been dud weeks.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionBurden: 12.1 (best)Downs: 10.3
TD pointsof the projectionBurden: 2.1Downs: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekBurden: 0.35Downs: Our estimate
Projected team pointsBurden: 21.8 (best)Downs: 18.3
Goal line carriesper gameBurden: 0.1 (best)Downs: 0.0
Red zone carriesper gameBurden: 0.4 (best)Downs: 0.1
Red zone targetsper gameBurden: 1.3 (best)Downs: 0.7
Role
Snap shareBurden: 61%Downs: 82% (best)
Usage worthptsBurden: 12.8 (best)Downs: 11.4
Touch shareBurden: 10% (best)Downs: 8%
Target shareBurden: 21% (best)Downs: 20%
Touches / gameBurden: 6.1 (best)Downs: 3.9
Targets / gameBurden: 6.7 (best)Downs: 6.6
Air yards shareBurden: 26%Downs: 29% (best)
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsBurden: In lineDowns: Below
WOPRBurden: 0.49Downs: 0.50 (best)
RZ target shareBurden: 25% (best)Downs: 23%
Catch rateBurden: 74% (best)Downs: 57%
SeparationBurden: 3.1 yds (best)Downs: 2.4 yds
YAC over expectedBurden: +0.5Downs: +0.7 (best)
Usage worth vs scoredBurden: Earned by usage 12.8Scored 13.9Downs: Earned by usage 11.4Scored 8.2
Rush yards / gameBurden: 4.1 (best)Downs: 1.0
Points from rushingBurden: 3%Downs: 1%
Vacated targets this weekBurden: 2.0Downs: 3.5 (best)
High value touches / gameBurden: 5.1 (best)Downs: 3.9
Goal line carry shareBurden: 4% (best)Downs: 0%
Red zone touches / gameBurden: 1.7 (best)Downs: 0.9
Rush success rateBurden: 50%Downs: 100% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Burden: 0%Downs: 0%
Inside 10 target shareBurden: 20% (best)Downs: 0%
Rushing points / gameBurden: 0.4 pts / game (best)Downs: 0.1 pts / game
Rushing floorBurden: 0.2 pts / game (best)Downs: 0.0 pts / game
Range
FloorBurden: 7.4 (best)Downs: 6.2
CeilingBurden: 18.8 (best)Downs: 16.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerBurden: 12%Downs: 0%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Burden: 14% (best)Downs: 0%
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterBurden: 14% (best)Downs: 43%
SteadinessBurden: Very steady (best)±6.5 pts · 7 gamesDowns: Very steady±4.0 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionBurden: F2026, 7 gmDowns: A (best)2026, 6 gm
Game scriptBurden: Expected to trail (best)Downs: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterBurden: 1.7Downs: 1.5 (best)
Defense funnelBurden: NeutralDowns: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedBurden: 1st (tough)Downs: 30th (soft) (best)
Starting QBBurden: Williams (Active)Downs: Jones (Active)
Roof / surfaceBurden: OpenturfDowns: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleBurden: 11 days restDowns: Normal
Opp paceBurden: 9th (fast) (best)Downs: 23rd (slow)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameBurden: 2.911th (average)Downs: 4.0 (best)27th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedBurden: 56%3rd (tough)Downs: 65% (best)24th (soft)
Opp rush yds allowedBurden: 6th (tough) (best)Downs: 1st (tough)
Opp stuff rateBurden: 22%4th (tough)Downs: 17% (best)19th (average)
Opp yards per carry allowedBurden: 3.4 (best)2nd (tough)Downs: 3.01st (tough)
Form
Last 3 avgBurden: 16.7 (best)Downs: 6.7
Last 5 avgBurden: 16.3 (best)Downs: 7.5
vs seasonBurden: +2.8 (Rising) (best)Downs: −1.5 (Cooling)
Yards per carryBurden: 3.6Downs: 1 carry
Carries / gameBurden: 1.1 (best)Downs: 0.1
Yards per route runBurden: 2.87 (best)Downs: 1.39
Receiving aDOTBurden: 8.5Downs: 10.7
Target share trendBurden: SteadyDowns: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesBurden: 85% (best)Downs: 41%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterBurden: WR21 (best)Downs: WR33
Yards linereceivingBurden: 51.0Downs: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.