Mitchell
RB · LAC @ LA
Kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET
Projected points4.8pts
Hill
RB · BAL @ BUF
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points4.8pts
Toss-up
Bench
Justice Hill or Keaton Mitchell: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Keaton Mitchell gets the nod over Justice Hill.
- Ahead by
- Level
- with Hill
- Confidence
- Lower
- Toss-up
Case for Hill
The case for Hill is more long runs (9.5% of carries go 20+ yards to 2.9%) and an offense expected to score more (25.8 points to 19.3).
Flips if
Start Justice Hill instead if you need a big week: he has more big weeks (4% of his games to 0%).
Risk
The risk: Mitchell ran for 4 yards in Week 6 (0.4 points).
Highlights
MitchellToss-upRB · LAC @ LAUsually 6.2−1.3pts this week
Helps him
- 8.3ceilingHis best weeks reach about 8.3 points.
Hurts him
- −1.3pts2 linesRushing yards 15.5 (usual 23.2) and catches 1.5 (usual 2.0) both sit below his usual.
- 17%touchesHe handles only 17% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
- 19.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 19.3 points.
HillFirst outRB · BAL @ BUFUsually 5.1−0.3pts this week
Helps him
- +1.0ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.16 touchdowns, above his usual 0.00.
- BUFvs RBsEdgeBUF is the 4th softest defense for running backs.
Hurts him
- −0.8ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 11.5 rushing yards, below his usual 20.0.
- 10%touchesHe handles only 10% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
- +3.0spreadEdgeHis team is expected to trail, which can cut his carries.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionMitchell: 4.8Hill: 4.8
TD pointsof the projectionMitchell: 1.1 (best)Hill: 1.0
Expected TDsthis weekMitchell: 0.19 (best)Hill: 0.16
Projected team pointsMitchell: 19.3Hill: 25.8 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameMitchell: 0.0Hill: 0.0
Red zone carriesper gameMitchell: 0.5 (best)Hill: 0.1
Red zone targetsper gameMitchell: 0.2 (best)Hill: 0.0
Role
Snap shareMitchell: 32%Hill: 43% (best)
Usage worthptsMitchell: 6.6 (best)Hill: 4.9
Touch shareMitchell: 17% (best)Hill: 10%
Target shareMitchell: 9% (best)Hill: 8%
Touches / gameMitchell: 7.8 (best)Hill: 4.9
Targets / gameMitchell: 2.5 (best)Hill: 2.4
Vacated touches this weekMitchell: 0.0Hill: 0.0
High value touches / gameMitchell: 2.2 (best)Hill: 1.9
Goal line carry shareMitchell: 0%Hill: 0%
Red zone touches / gameMitchell: 0.7 (best)Hill: 0.1
Rush success rateMitchell: 37%Hill: 38% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Mitchell: 2.9%Hill: 9.5% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredMitchell: Earned by usage 6.6Scored 6.2Hill: Earned by usage 4.9Scored 5.1
Rush yards / gameMitchell: 23.2 (best)Hill: 20.0
Points from rushingMitchell: 37%Hill: 40%
WOPRMitchell: 0.12 (best)Hill: 0.11
RZ target shareMitchell: 5% (best)Hill: 0%
Inside 10 target shareMitchell: 8% (best)Hill: 0%
Catch rateMitchell: 80% (best)Hill: 76%
Rushing points / gameMitchell: 2.3 pts / game (best)Hill: 2.0 pts / game
Rushing floorMitchell: 1.8 pts / game (best)Hill: 1.3 pts / game
Range
FloorMitchell: 2.6Hill: 3.0 (best)
CeilingMitchell: 8.3 (best)Hill: 7.6
Points from TDssteadier when lowerMitchell: 16%Hill: 0%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Mitchell: 0%Hill: 4% (best)
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterMitchell: 67% (best)Hill: 79%
SteadinessMitchell: Volatile (best)±5.4 pts · 6 gamesHill: Volatile±5.6 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionMitchell: D+2026, 7 gmHill: A (best)2026, 6 gm
Game scriptMitchell: Expected to trailHill: Expected to trail (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterMitchell: 0.9 (best)Hill: 1.0
Defense funnelMitchell: NeutralHill: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedMitchell: 18th (average) (best)Hill: 15th (average)
Backfield roleMitchell: BackupHill: Backup
Roof / surfaceturfMitchell: DomeHill: Open
Rest / scheduleMitchell: Off a byeHill: Normal
Opp paceMitchell: 3rd (fast) (best)Hill: 24th (slow)
Opp stuff rateMitchell: 19% (best)14th (average)Hill: 22%5th (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowedMitchell: 3.8 (best)8th (tough)Hill: 3.64th (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedMitchell: 4th (tough)Hill: 31st (soft) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameMitchell: 0.124th (soft)Hill: 0.2 (best)31st (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedMitchell: 78% (best)16th (average)Hill: 70%5th (tough)
Starting QBMitchell: Herbert (Active)Hill: Huntley (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgMitchell: 5.9Hill: 6.7 (best)
Last 5 avgMitchell: 7.2 (best)Hill: 5.6
vs seasonMitchell: −0.3 (Steady)Hill: +1.6 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryMitchell: 4.0Hill: 6.7 (best)
Carries / gameMitchell: 5.8 (best)Hill: 3.0
Yards per route runMitchell: 0.83 (best)Hill: 0.76
Receiving aDOTMitchell: −1.8Hill: −1.2
Touch share trendMitchell: CoolingHill: Steady
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterMitchell: RB49 (best)Hill: RB51
Yards linerushingMitchell: 15.5 (best)Hill: 11.5
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.