Bourne
WR · ARI vs NYG
Proj pts
7.6pts
market
Boutte
WR · HOU vs DAL
Proj pts
7.5pts
market
Kayshon Boutte or Kendrick Bourne: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Kendrick Bourne over Kayshon Boutte by 0.1. Kendrick Bourne leads at 7.6. Kayshon Boutte is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs WR
Cons
- Low target share11% target share
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A+ vs WR
- Big-play upside36% boom weeks
Cons
- Low target share12% target share
- Thin volume3.3 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is boom rate: Bourne 14%, Boutte 36%.
Latest game on the card: Boutte 4.1 (PPR points).
Why Kendrick Bourne
Start Kendrick Bourne — projects 7.6, a favorable matchup vs NYG, with a rising role.
Kendrick Bourne projects 7.6 points on a 3.1–9.6 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYG. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: start Kendrick Bourne this week.
Working for Bourne: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs WR).
Working against Bourne: Low target share (11% target share), Thin volume (3.8 targets/g).
Where Bourne leads the head-to-head: Projection (7.6 vs 7.5); Last 3 avg (7.6 vs 4.6); Last 5 avg (7.6 vs 4.4); vs season (+3.1 vs -1.5); Bust rate (29% vs 43%); Targets / game (3.8 vs 3.3).
Why Kayshon Boutte
Sit Kayshon Boutte — projects 7.5, a favorable matchup vs DAL, but the role is cooling.
Kayshon Boutte projects 7.5 points on a 3.6–11.1 range. The matchup grades as favorable against DAL. Usage: targets / game at 3.3. Net: bench Kayshon Boutte this week.
Working for Boutte: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A+ vs WR), Big-play upside (36% boom weeks).
Working against Boutte: Low target share (12% target share), Thin volume (3.3 targets/g).
Where Boutte leads the head-to-head: Floor (3.6 vs 3.1); Ceiling (11.1 vs 9.6); Target share (12% vs 11%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A+ vs B+); Implied team total (25.8 vs 23.5); Consistency (21% vs 0%); Boom rate (36% vs 14%); Snap share (68% vs 62%); Red zone targets (5 vs 2).
Recent form
Kendrick Bourne's last 3 games: PPR points 3.1, 4.2, 15.5 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Kayshon Boutte's last 5 games: PPR points 3.6, 4.4, 3.1, 6.7, 4.1 (oldest to newest).
Bourne has already beaten Boutte's 7.5 projection in 1 of his 3; Boutte has beaten Bourne's 7.6 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Kendrick Bourne (ARI) faces NYG, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -2.5.
Kayshon Boutte (HOU) faces DAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 25.8, spread -3.0.
What flips it
Bourne's edge is 0.1 points (7.6 to 7.5). Boutte's ceiling (11.1) clears Bourne's projection, so a big game from Boutte flips it. Bourne's floor (3.1) sits under Boutte's projection, so a quiet game from Bourne flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)