Mitchell
RB · LAC @ LA
Kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET
Projected points4.8pts
Johnson
RB · CHI @ SEA
Kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET
Projected points4.8ptsUsage estimate
Toss-up
Bench
Keaton Mitchell or Roschon Johnson: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Keaton Mitchell gets the nod over Roschon Johnson.
- Ahead by
- Level
- with Johnson
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Johnson's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Johnson
The case for Johnson is more of the goal line work (8% of the carries inside the 5 to 0%) and more red zone touches (1.3 a game to 0.7).
Flips if
Start Roschon Johnson instead if you want more red zone touches (1.3 a game to 0.7).
Risk
The risk: Mitchell ran for 4 yards in Week 6 (0.4 points).
Highlights
MitchellToss-upRB · LAC @ LAUsually 6.2−1.3pts this week
Helps him
- OutGarrettEdgeHe faces a Rams defense without linebacker Myles Garrett.
Hurts him
- −1.3pts2 linesRushing yards 15.5 (usual 23.2) and catches 1.5 (usual 2.0) both sit below his usual.
- 17%touchesHe handles only 17% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
- 19.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 19.3 points.
JohnsonFirst outRB · CHI @ SEAUsually 4.0+0.7pts this week
Helps him
- +0.6ptspaceMost players at his position produce more than he has, so we expect him to bounce back some.
- +4.3last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 4.3 points above his season average.
Hurts him
- 8%touchesHe handles only 8% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
- SEAvs RBsEdgeSEA is the 7th toughest defense for running backs.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionMitchell: 4.8Johnson: 4.8
TD pointsof the projectionMitchell: 1.1Johnson: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekMitchell: 0.19Johnson: Our estimate
Projected team pointsMitchell: 19.3Johnson: 21.8 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameMitchell: 0.0Johnson: 0.3 (best)
Red zone carriesper gameMitchell: 0.5Johnson: 1.0 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameMitchell: 0.2Johnson: 0.3 (best)
Role
Snap shareMitchell: 32% (best)Johnson: 15%
Usage worthptsMitchell: 6.6 (best)Johnson: 4.6
Touch shareMitchell: 17% (best)Johnson: 8%
Target shareMitchell: 9% (best)Johnson: 4%
Touches / gameMitchell: 7.8 (best)Johnson: 4.6
Targets / gameMitchell: 2.5 (best)Johnson: 1.4
Air yards shareMitchell: Behind the lineJohnson: 2%
Vacated touches this weekMitchell: 0.0Johnson: 0.0
High value touches / gameMitchell: 2.2 (best)Johnson: 1.4
Goal line carry shareMitchell: 0%Johnson: 8% (best)
Red zone touches / gameMitchell: 0.7Johnson: 1.3 (best)
Rush success rateMitchell: 37%Johnson: 38% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Mitchell: 2.9% (best)Johnson: 0%
Usage worth vs scoredMitchell: Earned by usage 6.6Scored 6.2Johnson: Earned by usage 4.6Scored 4.0
Rush yards / gameMitchell: 23.2 (best)Johnson: 12.3
Points from rushingMitchell: 37%Johnson: 52%
WOPRMitchell: 0.12 (best)Johnson: 0.07
RZ target shareMitchell: 5%Johnson: 6% (best)
Inside 10 target shareMitchell: 8% (best)Johnson: 7%
Catch rateMitchell: 80%Johnson: 80%
Rushing points / gameMitchell: 2.3 pts / game (best)Johnson: 2.1 pts / game
Rushing floorMitchell: 1.8 pts / game (best)Johnson: 1.2 pts / game
Range
FloorMitchell: 2.6 (best)Johnson: 1.9
CeilingMitchell: 8.3Johnson: 10.1 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerMitchell: 16%Johnson: 21%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Mitchell: 0%Johnson: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterMitchell: 67%Johnson: 67%
SteadinessMitchell: Volatile (best)±5.4 pts · 6 gamesJohnson: Volatile±5.6 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmMitchell: D+Johnson: D+
Game scriptMitchell: Expected to trailJohnson: Expected to trail (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterMitchell: 0.9 (best)Johnson: 1.7
Defense funnelMitchell: NeutralJohnson: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedMitchell: 18th (average) (best)Johnson: 6th (tough)
Backfield roleMitchell: BackupJohnson: Backup
Opp defender outMitchell: Garrett (LB)Johnson: None listed
Roof / surfaceturfMitchell: DomeJohnson: Open
Rest / scheduleMitchell: Off a byeJohnson: 11 days rest
Opp paceMitchell: 3rd (fast) (best)Johnson: 9th (fast)
Opp stuff rateMitchell: 19% (best)14th (average)Johnson: 22%4th (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowedMitchell: 3.8 (best)8th (tough)Johnson: 3.42nd (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedMitchell: 4th (tough) (best)Johnson: 1st (tough)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameMitchell: 0.1 (best)24th (soft)Johnson: 0.01st (tough)
Opp catch rate allowedMitchell: 78%16th (average)Johnson: 86% (best)28th (soft)
Starting QBMitchell: Herbert (Active)Johnson: Williams (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgMitchell: 5.9Johnson: 8.3 (best)
Last 5 avgMitchell: 7.2 (best)Johnson: 5.6
vs seasonMitchell: −0.3 (Steady)Johnson: +4.3 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryMitchell: 4.0 (best)Johnson: 3.6
Carries / gameMitchell: 5.8 (best)Johnson: 3.4
Yards per route runMitchell: 0.83Johnson: 2.03 (best)
Receiving aDOTMitchell: −1.8Johnson: 2.9
Touch share trendMitchell: CoolingJohnson: Steady
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterMitchell: RB49 (best)Johnson: RB50
Yards linerushingMitchell: 15.5Johnson: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.