Allgeier
RB · ARI @ DAL
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Limited · Toe
Projected points5.9ptsUsage estimate
7.3 if he plays · 80% to play
Mitchell
RB · LAC @ LA
Kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET
Projected points4.8pts
Start · check inactives
Bench
Keaton Mitchell or Tyler Allgeier: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Tyler Allgeier. If he's inactive, start Keaton Mitchell.
- Ahead by
- +2.5pts
- over Mitchell if he plays
- Confidence
- Depends on inactives
- Tyler Allgeier may not play (about 80% to play)
Allgeier's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
If Tyler Allgeier is inactive, start Keaton Mitchell.
Risk
Tyler Allgeier was limited in practice (toe): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. If he sits, start Keaton Mitchell. As of Fri 1:00 PM ET
Highlights
AllgeierStart · check inactivesRB · ARI @ DALUsually 6.9−1.0pts this week
Helps him
- +0.6ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.
- DALvs RBsEdgeDAL is the softest defense for running backs.
Hurts him
- −1.4ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 1.4 points off his projection.
- 21%touchesHe handles only 21% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
- +7.0spreadEdgeHis team is expected to trail, which can cut his carries.
MitchellIf he sitsRB · LAC @ LAUsually 6.2−1.3pts this week
Helps him
- 8.3ceilingHis best weeks reach about 8.3 points.
Hurts him
- −1.3pts2 linesRushing yards 15.5 (usual 23.2) and catches 1.5 (usual 2.0) both sit below his usual.
- 17%touchesHe handles only 17% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
- 19.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 19.3 points.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionAllgeier: 5.9 (best)Mitchell: 4.8
TD pointsof the projectionAllgeier: Our estimateMitchell: 1.1
Expected TDsthis weekAllgeier: Our estimateMitchell: 0.19
Projected team pointsAllgeier: 23.8 (best)Mitchell: 19.3
Goal line carriesper gameAllgeier: 0.3 (best)Mitchell: 0.0
Red zone carriesper gameAllgeier: 1.7 (best)Mitchell: 0.5
Red zone targetsper gameAllgeier: 0.4 (best)Mitchell: 0.2
Role
Snap shareAllgeier: 52% (best)Mitchell: 32%
Usage worthptsAllgeier: 8.9 (best)Mitchell: 6.6
Touch shareAllgeier: 21% (best)Mitchell: 17%
Target shareAllgeier: 6%Mitchell: 9% (best)
Touches / gameAllgeier: 11.0 (best)Mitchell: 7.8
Targets / gameAllgeier: 2.4Mitchell: 2.5 (best)
Vacated touches this weekAllgeier: 0.0Mitchell: 0.0
High value touches / gameAllgeier: 3.1 (best)Mitchell: 2.2
Goal line carry shareAllgeier: 25% (best)Mitchell: 0%
Red zone touches / gameAllgeier: 2.1 (best)Mitchell: 0.7
Rush success rateAllgeier: 31%Mitchell: 37% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Allgeier: 1.6%Mitchell: 2.9% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredAllgeier: Earned by usage 8.9Scored 6.9Mitchell: Earned by usage 6.6Scored 6.2
Rush yards / gameAllgeier: 25.1 (best)Mitchell: 23.2
Points from rushingAllgeier: 49%Mitchell: 37%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsAllgeier: BelowMitchell: 1 RZ target
WOPRAllgeier: 0.08Mitchell: 0.12 (best)
RZ target shareAllgeier: 5%Mitchell: 5%
Inside 10 target shareAllgeier: 0%Mitchell: 8% (best)
Catch rateAllgeier: 94% (best)Mitchell: 80%
Rushing points / gameAllgeier: 3.4 pts / game (best)Mitchell: 2.3 pts / game
Rushing floorAllgeier: 2.1 pts / game (best)Mitchell: 1.8 pts / game
Range
FloorAllgeier: 3.8 (best)Mitchell: 2.6
CeilingAllgeier: 8.6 (best)Mitchell: 8.3
Points from TDssteadier when lowerAllgeier: 13%Mitchell: 16%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Allgeier: 0%Mitchell: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterAllgeier: 71%Mitchell: 67% (best)
SteadinessAllgeier: Very steady (best)±3.3 pts · 7 gamesMitchell: Volatile±5.4 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmAllgeier: A+ (best)Mitchell: D+
Game scriptAllgeier: Expected to trailMitchell: Expected to trail (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterAllgeier: 0.6 (best)Mitchell: 0.9
Defense funnelAllgeier: NeutralMitchell: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedAllgeier: 31st (soft) (best)Mitchell: 18th (average)
Backfield roleAllgeier: CommitteeMitchell: Backup
Opp defender outAllgeier: Bullard (DE)Mitchell: None listed
Roof / surfaceturfAllgeier: Retractable roofMitchell: Dome
Rest / scheduleAllgeier: NormalMitchell: Off a bye
Opp paceAllgeier: 9th (fast)Mitchell: 3rd (fast) (best)
Opp stuff rateAllgeier: 16% (best)24th (soft)Mitchell: 19%14th (average)
Opp yards per carry allowedAllgeier: 4.4 (best)25th (soft)Mitchell: 3.88th (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedAllgeier: 15th (average) (best)Mitchell: 4th (tough)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameAllgeier: 0.01st (tough)Mitchell: 0.1 (best)24th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedAllgeier: 80% (best)18th (average)Mitchell: 78%16th (average)
Starting QBAllgeier: Brissett (Active)Mitchell: Herbert (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgAllgeier: 5.8Mitchell: 5.9 (best)
Last 5 avgAllgeier: 7.0Mitchell: 7.2 (best)
vs seasonAllgeier: −1.1 (Cooling)Mitchell: −0.3 (Steady) (best)
Yards per carryAllgeier: 2.9Mitchell: 4.0 (best)
Carries / gameAllgeier: 8.7 (best)Mitchell: 5.8
Yards per route runAllgeier: 0.79Mitchell: 0.83 (best)
Receiving aDOTAllgeier: −2.1Mitchell: −1.8
Touch share trendAllgeier: SteadyMitchell: Cooling
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterAllgeier: RB40 (best)Mitchell: RB49
Yards linerushingAllgeier: Our estimateMitchell: 15.5
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.