nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Hurst

WR · TB vs GB

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

6.8pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Allen

WR · IND vs WAS

Questionable
Sun 9:30 AM

Proj pts

6.5pts

market

Lower Conf

Keenan Allen or Ted Hurst III: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Ted Hurst III over Keenan Allen by 0.3. Ted Hurst III leads at 6.8. Keenan Allen is the first one out, 0.3 short.

Crowd: 44% of managers started Allen.

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Availability & news

  • Keenan AllenQuestionable · Practice: Limited

    Allen was a limited participant in Thursday's practice due to a groin injury.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)

Highlights

Ted Hurst IIIStart
WR · TB vs GB

Cons

  • Low target share14% target share
  • Thin volume4.3 targets/g
Keenan AllenBench
WR · IND vs WAS

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs WR

Cons

  • Rotational snaps56% of snaps
  • Shaky floor4.1 floor

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

HurstStart
AllenBench
Projection6.86.5
Floor—4.1
Ceiling—10.2
Target share14%22%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)C+A-
Implied team total17.526.0

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Hurst 2, Allen 17.

Allen (Questionable · Practice: Limited): “Allen was a limited participant in Thursday's practice due to a groin injury.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Allen 18.3 (PPR points).

Why Ted Hurst III

Start Ted Hurst III — projects 6.8, an even matchup vs GB.

Ted Hurst III projects 6.8 points. The matchup grades as neutral against GB. Usage: targets / game at 4.3. Net: start Ted Hurst III this week.

Working against Hurst: Low target share (14% target share), Thin volume (4.3 targets/g).

Where Hurst leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.8 vs 6.5); Consistency (64% vs 41%); Bust rate (0% vs 18%); Snap share (75% vs 56%).

Why Keenan Allen

Sit Keenan Allen — projects 6.5, a favorable matchup vs WAS.

Keenan Allen projects 6.5 points on a 4.1–10.2 range. The matchup grades as favorable against WAS. Usage: targets / game at 7.2. Net: bench Keenan Allen this week.

Working for Allen: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs WR).

Working against Allen: Rotational snaps (56% of snaps), Shaky floor (4.1 floor).

Where Allen leads the head-to-head: Target share (22% vs 14%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A- vs C+); Implied team total (26.0 vs 17.5); Last 3 avg (9.7 vs 7.4); Last 5 avg (8.5 vs 7.4); vs season (+0.3 vs +0.0); Boom rate (24% vs 0%); Targets / game (7.2 vs 4.3); Red zone targets (17 vs 2).

Recent form

Ted Hurst III's last 3 games: PPR points 4.7, 6.6, 11 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).

Keenan Allen's last 5 games: PPR points 2.7, 10.6, 9.2, 1.5, 18.3 (oldest to newest).

Hurst has already beaten Allen's 6.5 projection in 2 of his 3; Allen has beaten Hurst's 6.8 in 3 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Ted Hurst III (TB) faces GB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 17.5, spread +3.5.

Keenan Allen (IND) faces WAS, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -3.5.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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