Bryant
WR · DEN vs SF
Proj pts
8.3pts
market
Bourne
WR · ARI vs NYG
Proj pts
7.6pts
market
Kendrick Bourne or Pat Bryant: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Pat Bryant over Kendrick Bourne by 0.7. Pat Bryant leads at 8.3. Kendrick Bourne is the first one out, 0.6 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share11% target share
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs WR
Cons
- Low target share11% target share
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Bryant 8, Bourne 2.
Why Pat Bryant
Start Pat Bryant — projects 8.3, an even matchup vs SF.
Pat Bryant projects 8.3 points on a 7.2–13.1 range. The matchup grades as neutral against SF. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: start Pat Bryant this week.
Working against Bryant: Low target share (11% target share), Thin volume (3.8 targets/g).
Where Bryant leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.3 vs 7.6); Floor (7.2 vs 3.1); Ceiling (13.1 vs 9.6); Last 3 avg (8.1 vs 7.6); Last 5 avg (8.1 vs 7.6); Consistency (30% vs 0%); Boom rate (25% vs 14%); Bust rate (25% vs 29%); Red zone targets (8 vs 2).
Why Kendrick Bourne
Sit Kendrick Bourne — projects 7.6, a favorable matchup vs NYG, with a rising role.
Kendrick Bourne projects 7.6 points on a 3.1–9.6 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYG. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: bench Kendrick Bourne this week.
Working for Bourne: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs WR).
Working against Bourne: Low target share (11% target share), Thin volume (3.8 targets/g).
Where Bourne leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs B-); Implied team total (23.5 vs 22.3); vs season (+3.1 vs -0.5); Snap share (62% vs 53%).
Recent form
Pat Bryant's last 3 games: PPR points 1.6, 8.2, 14.4 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Kendrick Bourne's last 3 games: PPR points 3.1, 4.2, 15.5 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Bryant has already beaten Bourne's 7.6 projection in 2 of his 3; Bourne has beaten Bryant's 8.3 in 1 of his 3.
Matchup
Pat Bryant (DEN) faces SF, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.3, spread +3.0.
Kendrick Bourne (ARI) faces NYG, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -2.5.
What flips it
Bryant's edge is 0.7 points (8.3 to 7.6). Bourne's ceiling (9.6) clears Bryant's projection, so a big game from Bourne flips it. Bryant's floor (7.2) sits under Bourne's projection, so a quiet game from Bryant flips it too. Confidence in the call: high.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)