Wilson
WR · PIT vs CLE
Final pts
16.4pts
7.7 proj · +8.7
Bourne
WR · ARI vs NYG
Proj pts
7.6pts
market
Kendrick Bourne or Roman Wilson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Roman Wilson over Kendrick Bourne by 0.1. Roman Wilson leads at 7.7. Kendrick Bourne is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share8% target share
- Thin volume2.3 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs WR
Cons
- Low target share11% target share
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Wilson 1, Bourne 2.
Why Roman Wilson
Start Roman Wilson — projects 7.7, a tough matchup vs CLE, with a rising role.
Roman Wilson projects 7.7 points on a 1.4–9.6 range. The matchup grades as tough against CLE. Usage: targets / game at 2.3. Net: start Roman Wilson this week.
Working against Wilson: Low target share (8% target share), Thin volume (2.3 targets/g).
Where Wilson leads the head-to-head: Projection (7.7 vs 7.6); Last 3 avg (9.5 vs 7.6); Last 5 avg (9.5 vs 7.6); vs season (+4.3 vs +3.1); Boom rate (22% vs 14%).
Why Kendrick Bourne
Sit Kendrick Bourne — projects 7.6, a favorable matchup vs NYG, with a rising role.
Kendrick Bourne projects 7.6 points on a 3.1–9.6 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYG. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: bench Kendrick Bourne this week.
Working for Bourne: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs WR).
Working against Bourne: Low target share (11% target share), Thin volume (3.8 targets/g).
Where Bourne leads the head-to-head: Floor (3.1 vs 1.4); Target share (11% vs 8%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs D-); Implied team total (23.5 vs 20.5); Bust rate (29% vs 56%); Targets / game (3.8 vs 2.3); Snap share (62% vs 42%); Red zone targets (2 vs 1).
Recent form
Roman Wilson's last 3 games: PPR points 5.6, 7.8, 15 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Kendrick Bourne's last 3 games: PPR points 3.1, 4.2, 15.5 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Wilson has already beaten Bourne's 7.6 projection in 2 of his 3; Bourne has beaten Wilson's 7.7 in 1 of his 3.
Matchup
Roman Wilson (PIT) played CLE (final: CLE 27 – 24 PIT). The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 20.5, spread -2.5.
Kendrick Bourne (ARI) faces NYG, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -2.5.
What flips it
Wilson's edge is 0.1 points (7.7 to 7.6). Bourne's ceiling (9.6) clears Wilson's projection, so a big game from Bourne flips it. Wilson's floor (1.4) sits under Bourne's projection, so a quiet game from Wilson flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)