Pollard
RB · TEN vs BAL
Proj pts
11.8pts
market
Gainwell
RB · TB vs GB
Proj pts
9.9pts
market
Kenny Gainwell or Tony Pollard: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Tony Pollard. Bench Kenny Gainwell. Tony Pollard leads at 11.8. Kenny Gainwell is the first one out, 2.0 short.
Crowd: 38% of managers started Pollard.
Availability & news
Tony PollardPractice: DNP
Pollard (foot) practiced without limitations Thursday.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)
Kenny Gainwell
Gainwell turned three carries into minus-4 yards and added two catches (on five targets) for 14 yards in Sunday's 23-16 loss to the Vikings. He also returned six kickoffs for 160 yards and added a tackle.(rotowire, Sep 28, 2026)
Highlights
Cons
- Low team total15.5 team total
Pros
- Pass-game role5.0 targets/g
- Spike upside20.8 ceiling
Cons
- Below your start line2.0 pts short
- Committee back24% of touches
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is bust rate: Pollard 6%, Gainwell 29%.
Pollard (Practice: DNP): “Pollard (foot) practiced without limitations Thursday.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.
Gainwell: “Gainwell turned three carries into minus-4 yards and added two catches (on five targets) for 14 yards in Sunday's 23-16 loss to the Vikings. He also returned six kickoffs for 160 yards and added a tackle.” — RotoWire, Sep 28, 2026.
Latest game on the card: Gainwell 3 (PPR points).
Why Tony Pollard
Start Tony Pollard — projects 11.8, an even matchup vs BAL, but the role is cooling.
Tony Pollard projects 11.8 points on a 7.9–16.6 range. The matchup grades as neutral against BAL. Usage: carries / game at 14.2. Net: start Tony Pollard this week.
Working against Pollard: Low team total (15.5 team total).
Where Pollard leads the head-to-head: Projection (11.8 vs 9.9); Floor (7.9 vs 5.9); Touch share (38% vs 24%); Opportunity score (12.5 vs 11.4); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs C+); Last 3 avg (8.5 vs 3.4); Last 5 avg (9.3 vs 7.7); vs season (-2.5 vs -4.6); Consistency (52% vs 34%); Bust rate (6% vs 29%); Carries / game (14.2 vs 6.7); Touches / game (16.2 vs 11.0); Snap share (62% vs 50%).
Why Kenny Gainwell
Sit Kenny Gainwell — projects 9.9, an even matchup vs GB, but the role is cooling.
Kenny Gainwell projects 9.9 points on a 5.9–20.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against GB. Usage: carries / game at 6.7. Net: bench Kenny Gainwell this week.
Working for Gainwell: Pass-game role (5.0 targets/g), Spike upside (20.8 ceiling).
Working against Gainwell: Below your start line (2.0 pts short), Committee back (24% of touches).
Where Gainwell leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (20.8 vs 16.6); Implied team total (17.5 vs 15.5); Boom rate (24% vs 12%); Target share (16% vs 8%); Yards per carry (4.7 vs 4.5); Goal line carries (9 vs 4); Red zone carries (23 vs 19).
Recent form
Tony Pollard's last 5 games: PPR points 4.4, 7.5, 9.5, 11.5, 13.6 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Kenny Gainwell's last 5 games: PPR points 6.8, 21.4, 2.8, 4.5, 3 (oldest to newest).
Pollard has already beaten Gainwell's 9.9 projection in 2 of his 5; Gainwell has beaten Pollard's 11.8 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Tony Pollard (TEN) faces BAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 15.5, spread +11.5.
Kenny Gainwell (TB) faces GB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 17.5, spread +3.5.
What flips it
Pollard's edge is 1.9 points (11.8 to 9.9). Gainwell's ceiling (20.8) clears Pollard's projection, so a big game from Gainwell flips it. Pollard's floor (7.9) sits under Gainwell's projection, so a quiet game from Pollard flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Kenny Gainwell comparisons
- Kenny Gainwell or Rico Dowdle9.9 · 9.9
- Kenny Gainwell or Travis Etienne9.9 · 10.5
- Emanuel Wilson or Kenny Gainwell11.5 · 9.9
More Tony Pollard comparisons
- Tony Pollard or Woody Marks11.8 · 12.2
- Emanuel Wilson or Tony Pollard11.5 · 11.8
- Omarion Hampton or Tony Pollard12.2 · 11.8
- Breece Hall or Tony Pollard12.5 · 11.8
This week's toughest calls
- Chuba Hubbard or James Cook21.7 · 21.7
- Alvin Kamara or David Montgomery17.3 · 17.3
- Aaron Jones or Jeremiyah Love22.7 · 22.6
- Alvin Kamara or Quinshon Judkins17.3 · 17.3
- Bhayshul Tuten or Bucky Irving16.8 · 16.8
- Omarion Hampton or Woody Marks12.2 · 12.2
- More RB start/sit calls (running backs this week)