Barkley
RB · PHI vs LA
Proj pts
20.1pts
market
Williams
RB · LA vs PHI
Proj pts
19.8pts
market
Kyren Williams or Saquon Barkley: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Saquon Barkley over Kyren Williams by 0.3. Saquon Barkley leads at 20.1. Kyren Williams is the first one out, 0.3 short.
Crowd: 93% of managers started Barkley, 97% started Williams.
Highlights
Pros
- Goal-line back1.0 GL carries/g
- Spike upside26.1 ceiling
Cons
- Low team total19.5 team total
Pros
- Goal-line back1.2 GL carries/g
- Positive game scriptFavored
- High floor12.7 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is bust rate: Barkley 19%, Williams 6%.
Latest game on the card: Barkley 9, Williams 21.8 (PPR points).
Why Saquon Barkley
Start Saquon Barkley — projects 20.1, an even matchup vs LA, but the role is cooling.
Saquon Barkley projects 20.1 points on a 9.0–26.1 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LA. Usage: carries / game at 17.5. Net: start Saquon Barkley this week.
Working for Barkley: Goal-line back (1.0 GL carries/g), Spike upside (26.1 ceiling).
Working against Barkley: Low team total (19.5 team total).
Where Barkley leads the head-to-head: Projection (20.1 vs 19.8); Ceiling (26.1 vs 20.4); Touch share (40% vs 35%); Opportunity score (15.6 vs 13.9); Carries / game (17.5 vs 15.2); Touches / game (19.8 vs 17.4); Target share (12% vs 8%); Snap share (78% vs 68%).
Why Kyren Williams
Sit Kyren Williams — projects 19.8, an even matchup vs PHI.
Kyren Williams projects 19.8 points on a 12.7–20.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against PHI. Usage: carries / game at 15.2. Net: bench Kyren Williams this week.
Working for Williams: Goal-line back (1.2 GL carries/g), Positive game script (Favored), High floor (12.7 floor).
Where Williams leads the head-to-head: Floor (12.7 vs 9.0); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs C-); Implied team total (23.0 vs 19.5); Last 3 avg (17.7 vs 7.0); Last 5 avg (16.0 vs 9.8); vs season (+1.0 vs -1.6); Consistency (62% vs 53%); Bust rate (6% vs 19%); Yards per carry (4.8 vs 4.1); Goal line carries (20 vs 16); Red zone carries (61 vs 49).
Recent form
Saquon Barkley's last 5 games: PPR points 21.2, 6.8, 9, 3, 9 (oldest to newest).
Kyren Williams's last 5 games: PPR points 16, 11.1, 15.5, 15.7, 21.8 (oldest to newest).
Barkley has already beaten Williams's 19.8 projection in 1 of his 5; Williams has beaten Barkley's 20.1 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Saquon Barkley (PHI) faces LA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 19.5, spread +3.5.
Kyren Williams (LA) faces PHI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Barkley's edge is 0.3 points (20.1 to 19.8). Williams's ceiling (20.4) clears Barkley's projection, so a big game from Williams flips it. Barkley's floor (9) sits under Williams's projection, so a quiet game from Barkley flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Kyren Williams comparisons
- D'Andre Swift or Kyren Williams19.6 · 19.8
- Javonte Williams or Kyren Williams20.2 · 19.8
- Cam Skattebo or Kyren Williams21.1 · 19.8
- Kyren Williams or Quinshon Judkins19.8 · 17.3
More Saquon Barkley comparisons
- Javonte Williams or Saquon Barkley20.2 · 20.1
- D'Andre Swift or Saquon Barkley19.6 · 20.1
- Cam Skattebo or Saquon Barkley21.1 · 20.1
- Chuba Hubbard or Saquon Barkley21.7 · 20.1
This week's toughest calls
- Chuba Hubbard or James Cook21.7 · 21.7
- Kenny Gainwell or Rico Dowdle9.9 · 9.9
- Alvin Kamara or David Montgomery17.3 · 17.3
- Aaron Jones or Jeremiyah Love22.7 · 22.6
- Alvin Kamara or Quinshon Judkins17.3 · 17.3
- Bhayshul Tuten or Bucky Irving16.8 · 16.8
- More RB start/sit calls (running backs this week)