Gordon
RB · MIA vs NE
Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET
Projected points11.8pts
Barkley
RB · PHI @ WAS
Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ETLatest report: DNP · Hamstring
Projected points6.0ptsUsage estimate
13.2 if he plays · 46% to play
Lean
Bench
Ollie Gordon II or Saquon Barkley: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Lean Ollie Gordon II over Saquon Barkley.
- Ahead by
- +5.8pts
- over Barkley
- Confidence
- Moderate
- Saquon Barkley may not play (about 46% to play)
- Started
- 87%
- of leagues
Barkley's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
If the weather in Ollie Gordon II's game turns worse, start Saquon Barkley.
Risk
Weather in Ollie Gordon II's game: Outdoor · 73F, 6 mph wind, 100% rain. Check it again before kickoff. Saquon Barkley missed practice (hamstring): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. Saquon Barkley has played 1 game since missing time, so his recent numbers lean on his 2025 games. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
GordonLeanRB · MIA vs NEUsually 13.1−1.3pts this week
Helps him
- +0.7ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 9.5 receiving yards, above his usual 2.8.
- 1.7inside the 5He averages 1.7 carries a game inside the 5, so touchdowns stay in reach.
- +5.8last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 5.8 points above his season average.
- 4games in a rowHe has scored a touchdown in 4 straight games.
Hurts him
- −1.5ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.55 touchdowns, below his usual 0.80.
- −0.7ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 60.5 rushing yards, below his usual 67.8.
- NEvs RBsEdgeNE is the 2nd toughest defense for running backs.
BarkleyFirst outRB · PHI @ WASUsually 12.5−6.5pts this week
Helps him
- +5.8ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.
- +5.0ptsroleWith Pierce out, his expected role grows this week.
Hurts him
- −9.5ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 9.5 points off his projection.
- −3.5ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
- −3.2ptsrecent workHis work has dropped off in his last few games.
- −0.7ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionGordon: 11.8 (best)Barkley: 6.0
TD pointsof the projectionGordon: 3.3Barkley: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekGordon: 0.55Barkley: Our estimate
Projected team pointsGordon: 18.0 (best)Barkley: 17.0
Goal line carriesper gameGordon: 1.7 (best)Barkley: 0.4
Red zone carriesper gameGordon: 3.3 (best)Barkley: 1.6
Red zone targetsper gameGordon: 0.0Barkley: 0.0
Role
Snap shareGordon: 52% (best)Barkley: 36%
Usage worthptsGordon: 11.2 (best)Barkley: 7.6
Touch shareGordon: 30% (best)Barkley: 22%
Target shareGordon: 6%Barkley: 7% (best)
Touches / gameGordon: 13.0 (best)Barkley: 9.8
Targets / gameGordon: 1.3Barkley: 1.8 (best)
Vacated touches this weekGordon: 15.3Barkley: 29.6 (best)
High value touches / gameGordon: 2.8 (best)Barkley: 2.0
Goal line carry shareGordon: 71% (best)Barkley: 29%
Red zone touches / gameGordon: 3.3 (best)Barkley: 1.6
Rush success rateGordon: 38%Barkley: 42% (best)
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Gordon: 4.2%Barkley: 4.7% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredGordon: Earned by usage 11.2Scored 10.9Barkley: Earned by usage 7.6Scored 7.6
Rush yards / gameGordon: 56.5 (best)Barkley: 48.8
Points from rushingGordon: 89%Barkley: 80%
WOPRGordon: 0.07Barkley: 0.09 (best)
RZ target shareGordon: 0%Barkley: 0%
Inside 10 target shareGordon: 0%Barkley: 0%
Catch rateGordon: 75% (best)Barkley: 67%
Rushing points / gameGordon: 9.7 pts / game (best)Barkley: 6.1 pts / game
Rushing floorGordon: 5.0 pts / game (best)Barkley: 3.3 pts / game
Range
FloorGordon: 8.3 (best)Barkley: 0.0
CeilingGordon: 16.5 (best)Barkley: 8.8
Points from TDssteadier when lowerGordon: 37%Barkley: 16%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Gordon: 0%Barkley: 10% (best)
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterGordon: 0% (best)Barkley: 14%
SteadinessGordon: Very steady (best)±1.8 pts · 4 gamesBarkley: Steady±6.7 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionGordon: D2026, 7 gmBarkley: C (best)2026, 6 gm
Game scriptGordon: Expected to trailBarkley: Expected to trail (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterGordon: 1.0 (best)Barkley: 1.3
Defense funnelGordon: NeutralBarkley: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedGordon: 8th (tough)Barkley: 14th (average) (best)
Backfield roleGordon: LeadBarkley: Lead
Opp defender outGordon: None listedBarkley: Kinlaw (DT)
WeatherGordon: Outdoor73F, 6 mph wind, 100% rainBarkley: No concern
Roof / surfacegrassGordon: OpenBarkley: Open
Rest / scheduleGordon: NormalBarkley: Normal
Opp paceGordon: 16th (average)Barkley: 12th (average) (best)
Opp stuff rateGordon: 13% (best)28th (soft)Barkley: 18%17th (average)
Opp yards per carry allowedGordon: 4.1 (best)12th (average)Barkley: 3.88th (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedGordon: 19th (average)Barkley: 28th (soft) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameGordon: 0.01st (tough)Barkley: 0.2 (best)31st (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedGordon: 82% (best)20th (average)Barkley: 73%10th (tough)
Starting QBGordon: Willis (Active)Barkley: McKee (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgGordon: 16.7 (best)Barkley: 8.7
Last 5 avgGordon: 13.1 (best)Barkley: 7.6
vs seasonGordon: +5.8 (Rising) (best)Barkley: +1.1 (Rising)
Yards per carryGordon: 4.7Barkley: 5.7 (best)
Carries / gameGordon: 12.0 (best)Barkley: 8.6
Yards per route runGordon: 0.22Barkley: 0.65 (best)
Receiving aDOTGordon: −3.3Barkley: −0.6
Touch share trendGordon: SteadyBarkley: Left 2 games hurt
Games since injuryGordon: None recentlyBarkley: 1
Crowd
Started in leaguesGordon: 88% (best)Barkley: 65%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterGordon: RB23 (best)Barkley: RB38
Yards linerushingGordon: 60.5Barkley: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.