Flournoy
WR · DAL vs HOU
Proj pts
10.7pts
market
Lemon
WR · PHI vs LA
Proj pts
10.7pts
market
Makai Lemon or Ryan Flournoy: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Ryan Flournoy over Makai Lemon; the two are level at 10.7. Ryan Flournoy leads at 10.7. Makai Lemon is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share11% target share
- Thin volume3.7 targets/g
Pros
- Big-play upside33% boom weeks
Cons
- Low target share12% target share
- Thin volume3.0 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is consistency: Flournoy 16%, Lemon 49%.
Latest game on the card: Flournoy 4.2 (PPR points).
Why Ryan Flournoy
Start Ryan Flournoy — projects 10.7, a tough matchup vs HOU.
Ryan Flournoy projects 10.7 points on a 5.1–12.2 range. The matchup grades as tough against HOU. Usage: targets / game at 3.7. Net: start Ryan Flournoy this week.
Working against Flournoy: Low target share (11% target share), Thin volume (3.7 targets/g).
Where Flournoy leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (22.8 vs 19.5); Last 3 avg (5.2 vs 3.4); Last 5 avg (7.1 vs 3.4); Targets / game (3.7 vs 3.0); Red zone targets (7 vs 0).
Why Makai Lemon
Sit Makai Lemon — projects 10.7, an even matchup vs LA.
Makai Lemon projects 10.7 points. The matchup grades as neutral against LA. Usage: targets / game at 3.0. Net: bench Makai Lemon this week.
Working for Lemon: Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).
Working against Lemon: Low target share (12% target share), Thin volume (3.0 targets/g).
Where Lemon leads the head-to-head: Target share (12% vs 11%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs D-); vs season (+0.0 vs -1.8); Consistency (49% vs 16%); Boom rate (33% vs 15%); Bust rate (0% vs 31%); Snap share (66% vs 48%).
Recent form
Ryan Flournoy's last 4 games: PPR points 12.8, 4.2, 7.3, 4.2 (oldest to newest).
Makai Lemon's last 3 games: PPR points 1.9, 2.5, 5.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Flournoy has already beaten Lemon's 10.7 projection in 1 of his 4; Lemon has beaten Flournoy's 10.7 in 0 of his 3.
Matchup
Ryan Flournoy (DAL) faces HOU, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 22.8, spread +3.0.
Makai Lemon (PHI) faces LA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 19.5, spread +3.5.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Makai Lemon comparisons
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- Kalif Raymond or Makai Lemon10.5 · 10.7
- Makai Lemon or Wan'Dale Robinson10.7 · 10.8
- Makai Lemon or Xavier Worthy10.7 · 11.3
More Ryan Flournoy comparisons
- Michael Pittman or Ryan Flournoy10.7 · 10.7
- Ryan Flournoy or Wan'Dale Robinson10.7 · 10.8
- Kalif Raymond or Ryan Flournoy10.5 · 10.7
- Ryan Flournoy or Xavier Worthy10.7 · 11.3
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- Jakobi Meyers or Khalil Shakir11.8 · 11.9
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)