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Scoring
#1 Start

Gordon

RB · MIA vs MIN

Sun 4:05 PM

Proj pts

7.6pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Lloyd

RB · GB vs TB

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

7.1pts

market

Lower Conf

MarShawn Lloyd or Ollie Gordon II: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Ollie Gordon II over MarShawn Lloyd by 0.5. Ollie Gordon II leads at 7.6. MarShawn Lloyd is the first one out, 0.5 short.

Crowd: 44% of managers started Gordon.

Highlights

Ollie Gordon IIStart
RB · MIA vs MIN

Pros

  • Big-play upside40% boom weeks

Cons

  • Committee back10% of touches
  • Low team total14.0 team total
MarShawn LloydBench
RB · GB vs TB

Pros

  • Positive game scriptFavored
  • Reliable100% consistency

Cons

  • Committee back1% of touches
  • Shaky floor3.6 floor

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

GordonStart
LloydBench
Projection7.67.1
Floor3.63.6
Ceiling12.19.8
Touch share10%1%
Opportunity score3.35.3
Matchup grade(recency weighted)D+B-
Implied team total14.021.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touch share: Gordon 10%, Lloyd 1%.

Latest game on the card: Gordon 14.5, Lloyd 3.8 (PPR points).

Why Ollie Gordon II

Start Ollie Gordon II — projects 7.6, a tough matchup vs MIN, with a rising role.

Ollie Gordon II projects 7.6 points on a 3.6–12.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against MIN. Usage: carries / game at 4.1. Net: start Ollie Gordon II this week.

Working for Gordon: Big-play upside (40% boom weeks).

Working against Gordon: Committee back (10% of touches), Low team total (14.0 team total).

Where Gordon leads the head-to-head: Projection (7.6 vs 7.1); Ceiling (12.1 vs 9.8); Touch share (10% vs 1%); Last 3 avg (5.8 vs 5.4); Boom rate (40% vs 0%); Yards per carry (2.8 vs 2.5); Snap share (22% vs 14%); Goal line carries (6 vs 0); Red zone carries (19 vs 0).

Why MarShawn Lloyd

Sit MarShawn Lloyd — projects 7.1, an even matchup vs TB.

MarShawn Lloyd projects 7.1 points on a 3.6–9.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against TB. Usage: carries / game at 6.0. Net: bench MarShawn Lloyd this week.

Working for Lloyd: Positive game script (Favored), Reliable (100% consistency).

Working against Lloyd: Committee back (1% of touches), Shaky floor (3.6 floor).

Where Lloyd leads the head-to-head: Opportunity score (5.3 vs 3.3); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs D+); Implied team total (21.5 vs 14.0); Last 5 avg (4.7 vs 3.8); vs season (+0.0 vs -0.2); Consistency (100% vs 11%); Bust rate (0% vs 50%); Carries / game (6.0 vs 4.1); Touches / game (7.0 vs 4.5); Target share (8% vs 2%).

Recent form

Ollie Gordon II's last 5 games: PPR points 0.9, 1, 2.1, 0.7, 14.5 (oldest to newest).

MarShawn Lloyd's last 4 games: PPR points 2.8, 3.7, 8.6, 3.8 (oldest to newest).

Gordon has already beaten Lloyd's 7.1 projection in 1 of his 5; Lloyd has beaten Gordon's 7.6 in 1 of his 4.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Ollie Gordon II (MIA) faces MIN, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 14.0, spread +10.5.

MarShawn Lloyd (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread -3.5.

What flips it

Gordon's edge is 0.5 points (7.6 to 7.1). Lloyd's ceiling (9.8) clears Gordon's projection, so a big game from Lloyd flips it. Gordon's floor (3.6) sits under Lloyd's projection, so a quiet game from Gordon flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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