Mayer
TE · LV vs KC
Proj pts
8.3pts
market
Hockenson
TE · MIN vs MIA
Proj pts
6.9pts
opportunity
Michael Mayer or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Michael Mayer. Bench T.J. Hockenson. Michael Mayer leads at 8.3. T.J. Hockenson is the first one out, 1.4 short.
Crowd: 32% of managers started Hockenson.
Highlights
Cons
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
- Tough matchupTough · D+ vs TE
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touchdown dependence: Mayer 7%, Hockenson 16%.
Latest game on the card: Mayer 12.2, Hockenson 3.1 (PPR points).
Why Michael Mayer
Start Michael Mayer — projects 8.3, a tough matchup vs KC, with a rising role.
Michael Mayer projects 8.3 points on a 5.5–12.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against KC. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: start Michael Mayer this week.
Working against Mayer: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Tough matchup (Tough · D+ vs TE).
Where Mayer leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.3 vs 6.9); Floor (5.5 vs 5.1); Ceiling (12.1 vs 11.4); Last 3 avg (8.9 vs 7.5); Last 5 avg (10.5 vs 6.9); vs season (+3.6 vs -0.2); Boom rate (20% vs 13%).
Why T.J. Hockenson
Sit T.J. Hockenson — projects 6.9, a favorable matchup vs MIA.
T.J. Hockenson projects 6.9 points on a 5.1–11.4 range. The matchup grades as favorable against MIA. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: bench T.J. Hockenson this week.
Working for Hockenson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE).
Where Hockenson leads the head-to-head: Target share (16% vs 14%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs D+); Implied team total (24.5 vs 21.5); Consistency (48% vs 31%); Targets / game (4.4 vs 3.8); Snap share (78% vs 62%); Red zone targets (11 vs 6); Touchdown dependence (16% vs 7%); Grade vs TE (recency weighted) (A vs D+); Implied total (24.5 vs 21.5).
Recent form
Michael Mayer's last 5 games: PPR points 17.9, 7.7, 9.2, 5.3, 12.2 (oldest to newest).
T.J. Hockenson's last 5 games: PPR points 10.6, 1.2, 13.6, 5.9, 3.1 (oldest to newest).
Mayer has already beaten Hockenson's 6.9 projection in 4 of his 5; Hockenson has beaten Mayer's 8.3 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Michael Mayer (LV) faces KC, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +4.5.
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) faces MIA, kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread -10.5.
What flips it
Mayer's edge is 1.4 points (8.3 to 6.9). Hockenson's ceiling (11.4) clears Mayer's projection, so a big game from Hockenson flips it. Mayer's floor (5.5) sits under Hockenson's projection, so a quiet game from Mayer flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- Hunter Henry or AJ Barner11.2 · 11.2
- Tucker Kraft or Isaiah Likely12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- Colston Loveland or AJ Barner11.3 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)