Bryant
WR · DEN vs SF
Proj pts
8.3pts
market
Wilson
WR · PIT vs CLE
Final pts
16.4pts
7.7 proj · +8.7
Pat Bryant or Roman Wilson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Pat Bryant over Roman Wilson by 0.6. Pat Bryant leads at 8.3. Roman Wilson is the first one out, 0.5 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share11% target share
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
Cons
- Low target share8% target share
- Thin volume2.3 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Bryant 8, Wilson 1.
Why Pat Bryant
Start Pat Bryant — projects 8.3, an even matchup vs SF.
Pat Bryant projects 8.3 points on a 7.2–13.1 range. The matchup grades as neutral against SF. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: start Pat Bryant this week.
Working against Bryant: Low target share (11% target share), Thin volume (3.8 targets/g).
Where Bryant leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.3 vs 7.7); Floor (7.2 vs 1.4); Ceiling (13.1 vs 9.6); Target share (11% vs 8%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs D-); Implied team total (22.3 vs 20.5); Consistency (30% vs 0%); Boom rate (25% vs 22%); Bust rate (25% vs 56%); Targets / game (3.8 vs 2.3); Snap share (53% vs 42%); Red zone targets (8 vs 1).
Why Roman Wilson
Sit Roman Wilson — projects 7.7, a tough matchup vs CLE, with a rising role.
Roman Wilson projects 7.7 points on a 1.4–9.6 range. The matchup grades as tough against CLE. Usage: targets / game at 2.3. Net: bench Roman Wilson this week.
Working against Wilson: Low target share (8% target share), Thin volume (2.3 targets/g).
Where Wilson leads the head-to-head: Last 3 avg (9.5 vs 8.1); Last 5 avg (9.5 vs 8.1); vs season (+4.3 vs -0.5).
Recent form
Pat Bryant's last 3 games: PPR points 1.6, 8.2, 14.4 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Roman Wilson's last 3 games: PPR points 5.6, 7.8, 15 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Bryant has already beaten Wilson's 7.7 projection in 2 of his 3; Wilson has beaten Bryant's 8.3 in 1 of his 3.
Matchup
Pat Bryant (DEN) faces SF, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.3, spread +3.0.
Roman Wilson (PIT) played CLE (final: CLE 27 – 24 PIT). The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 20.5, spread -2.5.
What flips it
Bryant's edge is 0.6 points (8.3 to 7.7). Wilson's ceiling (9.6) clears Bryant's projection, so a big game from Wilson flips it. Bryant's floor (7.2) sits under Wilson's projection, so a quiet game from Bryant flips it too. Confidence in the call: high.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)