Worthy
WR · KC vs LV
Proj pts
11.3pts
market
Flournoy
WR · DAL vs HOU
Proj pts
10.7pts
market
Ryan Flournoy or Xavier Worthy: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Xavier Worthy over Ryan Flournoy by 0.6. Xavier Worthy leads at 11.3. Ryan Flournoy is the first one out, 0.6 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Shaky floor5.3 floor
Cons
- Low target share11% target share
- Thin volume3.7 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is bust rate: Worthy 8%, Flournoy 31%.
Latest game on the card: Worthy 4, Flournoy 4.2 (PPR points).
Why Xavier Worthy
Start Xavier Worthy — projects 11.3, an even matchup vs LV.
Xavier Worthy projects 11.3 points on a 5.3–16.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LV. Usage: targets / game at 5.2. Net: start Xavier Worthy this week.
Working against Worthy: Shaky floor (5.3 floor).
Where Worthy leads the head-to-head: Projection (11.3 vs 10.7); Floor (5.3 vs 5.1); Ceiling (16.4 vs 12.2); Target share (16% vs 11%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs D-); Implied team total (26.0 vs 22.8); Last 3 avg (7.4 vs 5.2); vs season (-1.2 vs -1.8); Consistency (55% vs 16%); Bust rate (8% vs 31%); Targets / game (5.2 vs 3.7); Snap share (71% vs 48%).
Why Ryan Flournoy
Sit Ryan Flournoy — projects 10.7, a tough matchup vs HOU.
Ryan Flournoy projects 10.7 points on a 5.1–12.2 range. The matchup grades as tough against HOU. Usage: targets / game at 3.7. Net: bench Ryan Flournoy this week.
Working against Flournoy: Low target share (11% target share), Thin volume (3.7 targets/g).
Where Flournoy leads the head-to-head: Last 5 avg (7.1 vs 5.7); Boom rate (15% vs 8%); Red zone targets (7 vs 6).
Recent form
Xavier Worthy's last 5 games: PPR points 6.1, 0.1, 4.8, 13.5, 4 (oldest to newest).
Ryan Flournoy's last 4 games: PPR points 12.8, 4.2, 7.3, 4.2 (oldest to newest).
Worthy has already beaten Flournoy's 10.7 projection in 1 of his 5; Flournoy has beaten Worthy's 11.3 in 1 of his 4.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Xavier Worthy (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.
Ryan Flournoy (DAL) faces HOU, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 22.8, spread +3.0.
What flips it
Worthy's edge is 0.6 points (11.3 to 10.7). Flournoy's ceiling (12.2) clears Worthy's projection, so a big game from Flournoy flips it. Worthy's floor (5.3) sits under Flournoy's projection, so a quiet game from Worthy flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Ryan Flournoy comparisons
- Makai Lemon or Ryan Flournoy10.7 · 10.7
- Michael Pittman or Ryan Flournoy10.7 · 10.7
- Ryan Flournoy or Wan'Dale Robinson10.7 · 10.8
- Kalif Raymond or Ryan Flournoy10.5 · 10.7
More Xavier Worthy comparisons
- Malik Washington or Xavier Worthy11.3 · 11.3
- Emeka Egbuka or Xavier Worthy11.4 · 11.3
- Tre Tucker or Xavier Worthy11.5 · 11.3
- Wan'Dale Robinson or Xavier Worthy10.8 · 11.3
This week's toughest calls
- Christian Watson or Tee Higgins16.8 · 16.8
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.3 · 15.3
- Makai Lemon or Michael Pittman10.7 · 10.7
- KC Concepcion or Mack Hollins12.1 · 12.2
- Jakobi Meyers or Romeo Doubs11.8 · 11.8
- Jakobi Meyers or Khalil Shakir11.8 · 11.9
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)