nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Hurst

WR · TB vs GB

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

6.8pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Thornton

WR · KC vs LV

Sun 4:25 PM

Proj pts

6.7pts

market

Lower Conf

Ted Hurst III or Tyquan Thornton: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Ted Hurst III over Tyquan Thornton by 0.1. Ted Hurst III leads at 6.8. Tyquan Thornton is the first one out, 0.2 short.

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Highlights

Ted Hurst IIIStart
WR · TB vs GB

Cons

  • Low target share14% target share
  • Thin volume4.3 targets/g
Tyquan ThorntonBench
WR · KC vs LV

Cons

  • Low target share9% target share
  • Thin volume3.1 targets/g

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

HurstStart
ThorntonBench
Projection6.86.7
Floor—1.9
Ceiling—8.2
Target share14%9%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)C+B
Implied team total17.526.0

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Hurst 2, Thornton 4.

Why Ted Hurst III

Start Ted Hurst III — projects 6.8, an even matchup vs GB.

Ted Hurst III projects 6.8 points. The matchup grades as neutral against GB. Usage: targets / game at 4.3. Net: start Ted Hurst III this week.

Working against Hurst: Low target share (14% target share), Thin volume (4.3 targets/g).

Where Hurst leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.8 vs 6.7); Target share (14% vs 9%); Last 3 avg (7.4 vs 5.6); Last 5 avg (7.4 vs 5.6); Consistency (64% vs 36%); Bust rate (0% vs 22%); Targets / game (4.3 vs 3.1); Snap share (75% vs 43%).

Why Tyquan Thornton

Sit Tyquan Thornton — projects 6.7, an even matchup vs LV, with a rising role.

Tyquan Thornton projects 6.7 points on a 1.9–8.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LV. Usage: targets / game at 3.1. Net: bench Tyquan Thornton this week.

Working against Thornton: Low target share (9% target share), Thin volume (3.1 targets/g).

Where Thornton leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs C+); Implied team total (26.0 vs 17.5); vs season (+0.8 vs +0.0); Boom rate (22% vs 0%); Red zone targets (4 vs 2).

Recent form

Ted Hurst III's last 3 games: PPR points 4.7, 6.6, 11 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).

Tyquan Thornton's last 3 games: PPR points 0, 4.2, 12.6 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).

Hurst has already beaten Thornton's 6.7 projection in 1 of his 3; Thornton has beaten Hurst's 6.8 in 1 of his 3.

Matchup

Ted Hurst III (TB) faces GB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 17.5, spread +3.5.

Tyquan Thornton (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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