QB · Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams
@ Carolina Panthers · Week 1
- Line
- 1.5
- Passing TDs
- Nuvela
- 1.7
- our projection
- Difference
- +0.2
- +13%
- Lines checked
- Markets posted
- 14 of 14
- Line since open
- 0, from 1.5
- Projections updated
- Stats through
- Week 1
All player props
Every line available this week, with how often he cleared it recently. Selecting one re-anchors the rest of the page.
Every market compared
| Market | Line | Nuvela | Diff | Cleared L5 | Opened | Since open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 227.5 | 240 | +12.5 | 3 of 5 | 226.5 | +1 |
| Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.7 | +0.2 | 5 of 5 | 1.5 | level |
| Anytime TD | 17% | — | — | 0 of 5 | 18% | −1% |
| Interceptions | 0.5 | 0.4 | −0.1 | 2 of 5 | 0.5 | level |
| Rushing Yards | 20.5 | 19.9 | −0.6 | 1 of 5 | 19.5 | +1 |
| Pass Attempts | 31.5 | 33.6 | +2.1 | 4 of 5 | 32.5 | −1 |
| Completions | 20.5 | 20.2 | −0.3 | 1 of 5 | 20.5 | level |
| Pass + Rush Yards | 253.5 | 262.2 | +8.7 | 3 of 5 | 253.5 | level |
| Rush Attempts | 4.5 | 4.2 | −0.3 | 1 of 5 | 4.5 | level |
| Longest Completion | 36.5 | — | — | — | 36.5 | level |
| 1st TD | 4% | — | — | 0 of 5 | 4% | level |
| Last TD | 4% | — | — | 0 of 5 | 4% | level |
| Longest Rush | 10.5 | 8.6 | −1.9 | 2 of 5 | 11 | −0.5 |
| 2+ TDs | 1% | — | — | 0 of 5 | — | — |
How the line moved
- Thu 4:50 AM1.5opened
- Sun 9:40 AM1.50
Opened 1.5, now 1.5.
Catalysts are matched to each move by timing, which is approximate — read them as what was in the news around the move, not a proven cause.
Moves with this
We don’t have enough same-game history yet to publish which of this game’s other markets tend to move with this one. For now, treat correlated legs with care.
Recent output relative to line
Full season · every game against the selected line.
Passing TDs, last 1
- Consensus line
- 1.5
- Nuvela projection
- 1.7
- +0.2 on the line
- Above the line
- —
- vs closing lines
- —
- no closing lines
- Median
- —
- regular season
- Average
- —
Distribution by time window
The same games cut four ways, against the line posted now and against the line each game actually closed at.
Windows
| Window | Median | Above % · vs current line | Above % · vs closing line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 2 | 100%3/3 | 100%3/3 |
| Last 5 | 2 | 100%5/5 | 100%5/5 |
| Season | — | —— | —— |
| Last season | 2 | 53%9/17 | 53%9/17 |
Custom splits
Cut the same games by where they were played, who was on the field, and what the game was doing.
No games played yet this season, so there is nothing to split.
Availability
Practice participation through the week, and the teammates whose status changes his workload.
His practice week
- Injury
- None reported
- Game status
- Active
- Snap share, last game
- —
- Games missed this season
- —
Workload dependencies
- Brittain BrownRB · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Ir
- Nikola KalinicTE · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Ir
- Rome OdunzeWR · calf · Draws coverage — his status changes how the defense sets up.Questionable
- Tyson BagentQB · back · Throws him the ball — a change under center reshapes the passing game.Questionable
Injury report
Both clubs’ full report, not only the names that touch his own workload.
CHI · Chicago Bears
CAR · Carolina Panthers
What this report suggests
- Names listed
- 14
- 10 CHI · 4 CAR
- Ruled out
- 10
- won’t play
- Questionable
- 4
- decided at kickoff
- Touch his workload
- 4
- Brittain Brown, Nikola Kalinic +2
- His coverage
- —
- not tracked yet
4 names on these lists reach him directly. Brittain Brown, Nikola Kalinic +2 — flagged in Availability — are the teammates whose status changes his own workload. The rest reach him through the game, not his role.
Across both clubs, 10 ruled out and 4 questionable. A thinner defence argues for more possessions — volume, which is most of a yards prop — though it cuts both ways, since trailing throws more and leading throws less.
Counted from the two lists above rather than typed, so this can’t disagree with them. It reads the report; it does not predict who plays.
Key research points
What this line assumes, and what the data shows. You make the call.
The read
Everything below uses 2026 games before Week 1 only — nothing from this game or later. The market lists Caleb Williams at 1.5 passing TDs. Our projection, built from his own games and never from the line, is 1.7. Research, not a pick — the call is yours.
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it, and it adds nothing the tables below do not already carry.
Research context for this week
The factors actually in play this week, and which one swings it.
1 factor in play
Written by rule from this page’s own numbers — no model wrote it.
Game context
The game the line sits inside. A total and a script set how many chances there are before any of his own rates matter.
- Game total
- 47.5
- combined
- CHI implied total
- 25.25
- favored
- CAR implied total
- 22.25
- underdog
- Projected script
- Neutral/Lead
- favored
- Pace
- —
- not published yet
- Wind
- —
- no forecast yet
- Conditions
- Outdoor
- outdoor
What the game projects
- Offensive plays
- 70
- 1-game avg
- Dropbacks
- 37.8
- 54% pass
- Red-zone trips
- 4
- 1-game avg
- Pass rate ± exp
- −1.5
- PROE
A yards prop is a rate times a volume. The rates live in Usage; this is the volume they act on — the offence’s per-game workload and his projected share of it.
Usage & opportunity
Roughly 70% of any prop outcome is opportunity, not efficiency. This is the section that predicts.
Share of the offence
Opponent defense
How Carolina Panthers defends each position — fantasy points allowed per game, rank 1 = toughest — and what comparable roles have done against them.
By position
No games played yet this season, so there is nothing to rank a defence by.
Similar players
| Player | Value |
|---|---|
| Sam Darnold2025 · Wk 17 | — |
| Trevor Lawrence2025 · Wk 1 | — |
| Jordan Love2025 · Wk 9 | — |
| Baker Mayfield2025 · Wk 18 | — |
| Dak Prescott2025 · Wk 6 | — |
Game log · season
Most recent first — his weekly output for this market.
No games played yet this season.
Prop odds
Over/under prices across the market for the selected line.
Passing TDs
| Sportsbook | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 1.5 | +100 | −135 |
| BetOnline | 1.5 | −112 | −115 |
| BetRivers | 1.5 | −110 | −121 |
| Bovada | 1.5 | −120 | −110 |
| DraftKings | 1.5 | −119 | −107 |
| FanDuel | 1.5 | +100 | −130 |
Odds aggregated from licensed US sportsbooks via The Odds API, shown for research only. Nuvela does not accept bets and is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Take this research further
Each question opens in the Research Assistant with this player's context pre-loaded.
