Williams
RB · DAL vs ARI
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points17.1pts
Jones
RB · MIN @ DET
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Limited · Knee
Projected points12.6ptsUsage estimate
15.6 if he plays · 80% to play
Lean
Bench
Aaron Jones or Javonte Williams: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Lean Javonte Williams over Aaron Jones.
- Ahead by
- +4.5pts
- over Jones
- Confidence
- Moderate
- Aaron Jones may not play (about 80% to play)
- Started
- 98%
- of leagues
Jones's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
An injury tag on Javonte Williams or a bigger role for Aaron Jones.
Risk
Aaron Jones was limited in practice (knee): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. As of Fri 12:00 PM ET
Highlights
WilliamsLeanRB · DAL vs ARIUsually 18.6−1.5pts this week
Helps him
- +1.0ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 77.5 rushing yards, above his usual 67.4.
- 2.4inside the 5He averages 2.4 carries a game inside the 5, so touchdowns stay in reach.
- 30.8team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 30.8 points, a high scoring spot.
- 12.1floorA quiet week still projects to about 12.1 points.
Hurts him
- −1.2ptscatchesHis lines put him at 1.5 catches, below his usual 2.7.
- −1.0ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 1.12 touchdowns, below his usual 1.29.
- ARIvs RBsEdgeARI is the 12th toughest defense for running backs.
JonesFirst outRB · MIN @ DETUsually 14.0−1.4pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
Hurts him
- −3.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 3.0 points off his projection.
- −1.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- −1.0ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionWilliams: 17.1 (best)Jones: 12.6
TD pointsof the projectionWilliams: 6.7Jones: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekWilliams: 1.12Jones: Our estimate
Projected team pointsWilliams: 30.8 (best)Jones: 21.3
Goal line carriesper gameWilliams: 2.4 (best)Jones: 0.2
Red zone carriesper gameWilliams: 4.4 (best)Jones: 1.8
Red zone targetsper gameWilliams: 0.4Jones: 0.5 (best)
Role
Snap shareWilliams: 75% (best)Jones: 65%
Usage worthptsWilliams: 17.7 (best)Jones: 13.9
Touch shareWilliams: 38%Jones: 41% (best)
Target shareWilliams: 9%Jones: 11% (best)
Touches / gameWilliams: 18.4Jones: 19.7 (best)
Targets / gameWilliams: 3.1Jones: 3.2 (best)
Vacated touches this weekWilliams: 0.0Jones: 0.0
High value touches / gameWilliams: 5.6 (best)Jones: 2.7
Goal line carry shareWilliams: 94% (best)Jones: 50%
Red zone touches / gameWilliams: 4.9 (best)Jones: 2.3
Rush success rateWilliams: 47% (best)Jones: 35%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Williams: 2.7% (best)Jones: 1.0%
Usage worth vs scoredWilliams: Earned by usage 17.7Scored 18.6Jones: Earned by usage 13.9Scored 12.3
Rush yards / gameWilliams: 67.4Jones: 72.7 (best)
Points from rushingWilliams: 73%Jones: 75%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsWilliams: AboveJones: Below
WOPRWilliams: 0.12Jones: 0.17 (best)
RZ target shareWilliams: 7%Jones: 14% (best)
Inside 10 target shareWilliams: 0%Jones: 0%
Catch rateWilliams: 86% (best)Jones: 68%
Rushing points / gameWilliams: 13.6 pts / game (best)Jones: 9.3 pts / game
Rushing floorWilliams: 8.1 pts / game (best)Jones: 6.6 pts / game
Range
FloorWilliams: 12.1 (best)Jones: 9.6
CeilingWilliams: 25.3 (best)Jones: 18.7
Points from TDssteadier when lowerWilliams: 41%Jones: 16%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Williams: 27% (best)Jones: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterWilliams: 4% (best)Jones: 22%
SteadinessWilliams: Very steady±7.0 ptsJones: Very steady (best)±4.8 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionWilliams: C-2026, 7 gmJones: C (best)2026, 6 gm
Game scriptWilliams: Expected to lead (best)Jones: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterWilliams: 1.1Jones: 1.0 (best)
Defense funnelWilliams: PassJones: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedWilliams: 23rd (soft) (best)Jones: 12th (average)
Backfield roleWilliams: LeadJones: Lead
Roof / surfaceturfWilliams: Retractable roofJones: Dome
Rest / scheduleWilliams: NormalJones: Normal
Opp paceWilliams: 2nd (fast) (best)Jones: 4th (fast)
Opp stuff rateWilliams: 16% (best)23rd (soft)Jones: 18%16th (average)
Opp yards per carry allowedWilliams: 4.3 (best)21st (average)Jones: 4.112th (average)
Opp pass yds allowedWilliams: 21st (average)Jones: 32nd (soft) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameWilliams: 0.1 (best)24th (soft)Jones: 0.01st (tough)
Opp catch rate allowedWilliams: 71%8th (tough)Jones: 74% (best)12th (average)
Starting QBWilliams: Prescott (Active)Jones: Murray (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgWilliams: 16.2 (best)Jones: 13.0
Last 5 avgWilliams: 19.7 (best)Jones: 12.8
vs seasonWilliams: −2.4 (Cooling)Jones: +0.7 (Steady) (best)
Yards per carryWilliams: 4.3 (best)Jones: 4.2
Carries / gameWilliams: 15.7Jones: 17.5 (best)
Yards per route runWilliams: 0.93 (best)Jones: 0.85
Receiving aDOTWilliams: −1.6Jones: −0.3
Touch share trendWilliams: SteadyJones: Left Week 7 hurt
Crowd
Started in leaguesWilliams: 99% (best)Jones: 43%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterWilliams: RB5 (best)Jones: RB20
Yards linerushingWilliams: 77.5Jones: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
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