Jones
RB · MIN @ DET
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Limited · Knee
Projected points12.6ptsUsage estimate
15.6 if he plays · 80% to play
Johnson
RB · BUF vs BAL
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points5.9pts
Start · check inactives
Bench
Aaron Jones or Ty Johnson: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Aaron Jones. If he's inactive, start Ty Johnson.
- Ahead by
- +9.7pts
- over Johnson if he plays
- Confidence
- Depends on inactives
- Aaron Jones may not play (about 80% to play)
- Started
- 43%
- of leagues
Jones's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
If Aaron Jones is inactive, start Ty Johnson.
Risk
Aaron Jones was limited in practice (knee): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. If he sits, start Ty Johnson. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
JonesStart · check inactivesRB · MIN @ DETUsually 14.0−1.4pts this week
Helps him
- +3.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
Hurts him
- −3.0ptsinjuryHis questionable tag takes 3.0 points off his projection.
- −1.1ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- −1.0ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
JohnsonIf he sitsRB · BUF vs BALUsually 7.0−1.1pts this week
Helps him
- +0.9ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.15 touchdowns, above his usual 0.00.
- 28.8team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 28.8 points, a high scoring spot.
Hurts him
- −2.3ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 15.5 receiving yards, below his usual 38.8.
- −0.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 2.5 catches, below his usual 3.0.
- 7%touchesHe handles only 7% of his team’s touches, so the work is shared.
- BALvs RBsEdgeBAL is the 4th toughest defense for running backs.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionJones: 12.6 (best)Johnson: 5.9
TD pointsof the projectionJones: Our estimateJohnson: 0.9
Expected TDsthis weekJones: Our estimateJohnson: 0.15
Projected team pointsJones: 21.3Johnson: 28.8 (best)
Goal line carriesper gameJones: 0.2 (best)Johnson: 0.0
Red zone carriesper gameJones: 1.8 (best)Johnson: 0.3
Red zone targetsper gameJones: 0.5 (best)Johnson: 0.3
Role
Snap shareJones: 65% (best)Johnson: 24%
Usage worthptsJones: 13.9 (best)Johnson: 4.7
Touch shareJones: 41% (best)Johnson: 7%
Target shareJones: 11%Johnson: 13% (best)
Touches / gameJones: 19.7 (best)Johnson: 3.5
Targets / gameJones: 3.2 (best)Johnson: 3.0
Vacated touches this weekJones: 0.0Johnson: 0.0
High value touches / gameJones: 2.7Johnson: 3.0 (best)
Goal line carry shareJones: 50% (best)Johnson: 0%
Red zone touches / gameJones: 2.3 (best)Johnson: 0.5
Rush success rateJones: 35% (best)Johnson: 0%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Jones: 1.0% (best)Johnson: 0%
Usage worth vs scoredJones: Earned by usage 13.9Scored 12.3Johnson: Earned by usage 4.7Scored 7.0
Rush yards / gameJones: 72.7 (best)Johnson: 1.5
Points from rushingJones: 75%Johnson: 2%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsJones: BelowJohnson: 1 RZ target
WOPRJones: 0.17Johnson: 0.18 (best)
RZ target shareJones: 14% (best)Johnson: 6%
Inside 10 target shareJones: 0%Johnson: 0%
Catch rateJones: 68%Johnson: 100% (best)
Rushing points / gameJones: 9.3 pts / game (best)Johnson: 0.2 pts / game
Rushing floorJones: 6.6 pts / game (best)Johnson: 0.2 pts / game
Range
FloorJones: 9.6 (best)Johnson: 3.2
CeilingJones: 18.7 (best)Johnson: 8.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerJones: 16%Johnson: 0%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Jones: 0%Johnson: 0%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterJones: 22% (best)Johnson: 83%
SteadinessJones: Very steady (best)±4.8 ptsJohnson: Volatile±5.2 pts
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionJones: C (best)2026, 6 gmJohnson: D+2026, 7 gm
Game scriptJones: Expected to trailJohnson: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterJones: 1.0Johnson: 0.9 (best)
Defense funnelJones: NeutralJohnson: Pass
Opp rush yds allowedJones: 12th (average) (best)Johnson: 9th (tough)
Backfield roleJones: LeadJohnson: Backup
Opp defender outJones: None listedJohnson: Robinson (LB)
Roof / surfaceturfJones: DomeJohnson: Open
Rest / scheduleJones: NormalJohnson: Off a bye
Opp paceJones: 4th (fast) (best)Johnson: 17th (average)
Opp stuff rateJones: 18% (best)16th (average)Johnson: 22%6th (tough)
Opp yards per carry allowedJones: 4.1 (best)12th (average)Johnson: 3.88th (tough)
Opp pass yds allowedJones: 32nd (soft) (best)Johnson: 15th (average)
Opp deep targets allowed / game1st (tough)Jones: 0.0Johnson: 0.0
Opp catch rate allowedJones: 74%12th (average)Johnson: 74%13th (average)
Starting QBJones: Murray (Active)Johnson: Allen (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgJones: 13.0 (best)Johnson: 6.4
Last 5 avgJones: 12.8 (best)Johnson: 7.0
vs seasonJones: +0.7 (Steady) (best)Johnson: −0.7
Yards per carryJones: 4.2Johnson: 2 carries
Carries / gameJones: 17.5 (best)Johnson: 0.5
Yards per route runJones: 0.85Johnson: 3.69 (best)
Receiving aDOTJones: −0.3Johnson: −0.6
Touch share trendJones: Left Week 7 hurtJohnson: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesJones: 43%Johnson: Not widely started
Nuvela position ranklower is betterJones: RB20 (best)Johnson: RB39
Yards linerushingJones: Our estimateJohnson: 9.8
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.